Why Attribution Overcredits Coupon Code Last Clicks

Episode notes

Coupon codes are the cleanest conversion signal an attribution model can see - which is exactly why they hog credit. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the perverse incentive: every deal code a customer types is recorded as a last-click win, while the search ads, podcasts, and out-of-home placements that built the demand get nothing. They walk through a real mid-size DTC brand's numbers: 38 percent of orders carrying a code, but the codes themselves only arriving in email and paid search. The hosts look at what happens when you run a geo holdout - the marketing attribution equivalent of a controlled experiment - and how the same coupon-hungry customer behaves when the code disappears. They discuss why savvy teams now weight coupon codes as a conversion assist, not a final touch, and how one brand's 'code-light' test month reshaped its entire media budget. If you've ever wondered why your promo codes look so profitable on paper, this episode will make you question the whole dashboard.

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