The Fuel for Thought Podcast

The episode delivers substantial regulatory and policy detail across aviation, road, and maritime fuels with specific examples (Refuel EU mandates, ETS allowances, IMO net-zero framework, IRA tax credits). However, significant portions are devoted to introductions, pleasantries, and meta-discussion about keeping updated on regulations, which dilutes insight density. The core regulatory mechanics are explained clearly but without breakthrough frameworks or counterintuitive findings.

“Refuel EU Aviation, which is a regulation that was adopted in 2023 and that introduces blending mandates at every European airport, at least if it has a sufficient size. And from this year onwards, so 2025, this means that fuel suppliers need to deliver relevant volumes of staff, otherwise they face a hefty fine.”

“So the idea there was to reduce the free allowances that the aviation, uh, operates or aircraft operators get. So by the end of next year, 2026, airlines, cargo companies and others will actually have to pay for all their emissions, which are calculated on the basis of the fuel consumption.”

The analysis relies heavily on established policy frameworks (mandates, tax credits, ETS) rather than original thinking. The most original contribution - Asmara's proposal for a state-backed market intermediary to resolve deadlock between producers and offtakers - is interesting but underdeveloped. Most other claims recycle standard regulatory narratives about longevity, balancing sticks and carrots, and policy harmonization.

“I think that strikes a balance between demand driving measures, what we sometimes like to call the stick, because it actually often comes down to imposing certain quotas or for instance performance obligation in terms of GHD savings.”

“a market intermediary. The idea is that to resolve that deadlock, uh, you have a state backed intermediary that on the one hand organizes auctions and allocates long uh, term offtake agreements to the producers”

Jessica Olson (head of Global Affairs at Topsu, 20+ years in DC policy, worked on Clean Air Act) and Asmara Klein (head of External Relations at Zafra, studied political science, worked across NGOs and energy sector) are highly credible practitioners with deep regulatory expertise and operational responsibility. Both are actively shaping markets rather than observing them. However, neither is a CEO or founder at scale, limiting the guest caliber slightly.

“I've had the good fortune of working with, you know, experts who wrote the U.S. clean Air act, for example, and working on cap and trade policies and those various kinds of things, mostly for companies, uh, both in private law practice and then in house, uh, in government relations shops.”

“I lead our regulatory and public affairs work as well as our communications and branding efforts. But uh, perhaps also a few words about Zafra. So we are a one year old startup brand standing on the shoulders of giants since we are actually a joint venture between TOPS and Cecil, two formidable technology providers of the product of renewable fuels and particularly saf.”

The episode supplies concrete regulatory details: Refuel EU 2% mandate ramping to 70% by 2050, 20 million tons of SAF target by 2050, ETS allowances covering 95% of e-SAF price gap vs. 50% for bio-SAF, IMO penalties from $100 - $380/ton CO2, Illinois $50/gallon tax credit, Wisconsin $2/gallon incentive, €7,695/ton e-SAF cost, €5 per passenger surcharge by 2035. Yet large sections lack specificity (vague references to 'programs,' missing exact timelines for implementation, no detailed cost breakdowns for most scenarios).

“from this year onwards, so 2025, this means that fuel suppliers need to deliver relevant volumes of staff, otherwise they face a hefty fine. And the quotas started at 2% this year and then they jump every five years up to 2050, where the staff should make up about 70% of jet fuel uplifted in Europe.”

“we're going basically from zero at the moment to 20 million tons in 2050, so in 25 years.”

The host (Sylvain) asks competent but generally open-ended questions ('What is a good renewable fuel policy?', 'What are the biggest regulatory hurdles?'). Follow-ups are minimal and rarely probe disagreement or push back on claims. The conversation feels cordial but lacks the sharp questioning that would test assumptions - e.g., no challenge on why offtake agreements remain structurally stuck, limited drilling on why some EU member states still haven't transposed directives, no pressure on the feasibility of the €5/passenger surcharge thesis.

“So maybe we can start with Asmara. Ah, Asmara, can you say a few words about yourself and as well the organization you are working for now?”

“My last question in this introduction is about how to keep up with, uh, changing regulations. Like if it's not daily, it's almost weekly that new things are happening because so many countries are looking into aviation fuels, uh, shipping fuels now, road fuels.”