Why Your Attribution Model Overweights Display Retargeting

Episode notes

Lucas and Luna dig into a persistent blind spot in marketing analytics: the systematic overvaluation of display retargeting by multi-touch attribution models. Using a concrete example from an e-commerce brand running a 90-day test, Lucas explains the 'proximity bias' that inflates retargeting's credit by 40-60% - because retargeting always appears last or near-last in the click path, even when upper-funnel channels like podcasts or CTV did the actual conversion work. Luna pushes back with a 2025 study from the Journal of Marketing Research showing that retargeted users convert at roughly the same rate as organic returning visitors when you control for intent. They walk through the measurement fix: holdout groups and incrementality testing, which reveal that retargeting often cannibalizes organic conversions rather than generating net-new ones. The episode closes with a practical workflow for brands to audit their own display retargeting credit without buying new software - just smarter segment analysis.

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