How We Forecast $4B in GMV to 3% Accuracy

Episode notes

Every forecast is wrong. The question is whether yours is useful. Luke Austin, walks through the CTC Methodology series opener: a complete operating model for making profit predictable across ecommerce brands. This is not a spreadsheet. It is a four-step system built on 12 years of experience and $4 billion in GMV, combining proprietary data science with daily operational discipline to hit 3% forecast accuracy at scale. Topics covered in this episode: Why all models are wrong and what makes the best ones useful The "tigers not mice" framework for prioritizing what actually matters Qualitative planning: how a 12-month marketing calendar becomes a mathematical input The Spending Power (AMER) model and three optimization modes for new customer spend Cohort LTV modeling: why active vs.

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