The Week In Jobs: Massive Layoffs for Snap & Disney and New Grads Struggling to Get Jobs

All right, Peter, we are live for this weekend jobs. How are you today? I'm doing well. How are you doing?

I'm doing good, except I think I'm glitching, of course. What a what a time for that. How how do I sound for you? Uh I can hear you, but you're you are a little bit uh laggy.

So perfect. Wonderful. What a what a great way to do this. Well, let's give it a shot.

Let's see if it improves. Probably won't. What a what a time. Uh that's isn't that how it always is, though, with uh the tech that we uh that we're using.

Yeah, I could I could even see on my end that this isn't working well. So let me uh let me know. Well, I'll I you if you want to if you want to rejoin, I can uh can kick us off here. Yeah, go ahead, get us kicked off.

All right. Well, um, so we've got some uh some stories uh to cover this week. Uh first off, though, we wanted to kind of just give a uh uh summary of the numbers. Um we have uh it's been uh an up and down week.

There's been uh there's been some layoffs, um, but then there's been some good news, some reports that have come out. Um so first off, I uh we want to start off uh talking about Snap. Um Snap just uh announced that they laid off um some employees. Um it was unexpected on their end, and they but they're using the uh the time-old excuse of AI um accelerating their processes and so that they are able to uh they were still able to gain some some traction on Wall Street.

So all right, looks like you're back. Uh yeah, you know, Snap did what so many other companies have done recently. They announce layoffs, they say it's AI, and they get a big boost in their stock. So the question is, is it really AI or is it some reason?

I I mean I told you my thoughts on it. I think why would any company claim it's anything other than if they can feasibly blame it on AI? Because it seems like the market's rewarding them. So the market rewards them, right?

As long as that that continues, that's gonna be. Yeah, and for Snap in particular, I mean it was a a relatively large percentage of their of their workforce. But yeah, we also saw layoffs for Disney this week. Uh they didn't specifically say it was due to AI.

It was a thousand employees there too, very significant number for those employees and their families. But as a percentage of the overall company with over 200,000 employees, it wasn't a big percentage, but it's it's another big brand name, cutting jobs, doing it publicly. They and well, they and they at the very least, I mean, they kind of did it, you know, I guess say the old-fashioned way where they just blamed it on restructuring. Um, and you know, it was mostly relegated to their marketing departments, um, and some creative, I believe, with uh their studios.

Um yeah, new CEO in place, right? Yeah, it's a new CEO. So that that one is a little bit less uh, you know, uh of a shock to me, I guess. I mean neither of them are shocks, but that one was people have been saying that you know he's gonna be making changes when he comes in.

This is his first big move, so you know it it's it it stinks because it's you know it's a thousand people and that's their livelihood. Um but I guess at least they were straightforward in why they were cutting the jobs. Yeah, so Josh, Josh DeMorrow, new CEO, putting his mark on the organization right away. Good good luck to all those employees.

Let's hope that that is uh not a trend. We don't see more of that uh for sure, because that's not good to see. But so for good news, you know, what did you think about the ADP um report? Yeah, so ADP reported good numbers, right?

Of what 40,000, almost 40,000 new jobs added uh last week. And everyone is skeptical of jobs numbers these days, especially those who are on the job market looking for jobs. We're gonna talk about a specific group who's really really struggling in a minute, but there's a lot of distrusted numbers. These are private employee number employer numbers from ADP, take it from their own payroll data.

So, in theory, more more reliable, more trustworthy. And it's about 10x what we were seeing added at the beginning of the year. So it's a good trend for sure. Yeah, and like you said, it's it this is private uh payroll data from them.

So for better or worse, people seem to think it's it's more uh trustworthy. I personally do. Uh maybe it's because that they they don't revise their data as much as the the government does. Maybe that's not not a good thing.

They just kind of stick with their numbers, but uh I think that it's a good trend and it's a good sign, um, especially uh amongst some some other negative news. We haven't talked about this yet, but our our own survey was just published last week, our QQ survey. So we we surveyed 750 US workers who are currently employed. And one of the questions on there is about trust in government data.

And overwhelmingly, people still trust what the government says. And that has surprised me because objectively, you shouldn't, right? You shouldn't trust the data that they put out because historically they revise it constantly. So I was so were you surprised to see that number?

I I was. Um, you know, I I was, I guess I I expected people to just more be just neutral, um, uh, you know, maybe a little bit. I wasn't expecting everybody to like completely distrust everything, but I was uh I was expecting people to be neutral to like slight distrust versus you know, we had neutral to slight trust in the government, and that was a little bit surprising to me. Yeah.

Yeah, it it's it's almost like clockwork. I I typically will post a video on a couple social accounts every time the monthly jobs report comes out, and in invariably people will respond, you're crazy if you trust these numbers, these aren't true at all. And yet our survey showed that people largely trust what the government says. So there's definitely a contradiction there.

I don't know if it's just the job numbers they don't trust, but they trust everything else. Well, it seems like you also like you know, the loudest people are are probably trying to convince other ones the average person who maybe doesn't go out of their way. They yeah, they don't think about it, they trust it. So I guess that that that definitely shows that that that trend um is continuing.

People still believe in the government. Wait, are you suggesting that people who make nasty comments on social media are not representative? Or not the majority? Yeah, it's a crazy thought, I know.

No, but if you are watching us now, please you know weigh in. We'd like to know someone a link. I it doesn't show us who, unfortunately, on the uh the StreamYard software that we're using. But someone says, AI took my job.

I'd love to know more about that. We look, my my operating theory is that AI is displacing jobs at a pace that's not being publicly reported right now. Because no one's skeptical when the layoff announcements happen. But my first hand exposure tells me that this is happening at scale uh in a way that's just not being publicly reported right now.

Yeah, and uh, I'm gonna pull up the the LinkedIn just so I can see a little bit more of this. Yeah, so make sure you mute that. But but so I look, I what's your take on that? I mean, do you think that AI job is placed?

And we talked about it last week. I predict that it's going to be a much bigger impact by the end of the year, that it will the way it's getting ignored now will not be happening nine months from now. I I strongly believe that. I think the realization is going to hit and it's gonna hit really hard when it does.

Yeah, I I I struggle because uh I think that it's it is definitely growing, and I think it's definitely um gonna become a larger percentage of you know people's concern, um, so to speak. And we'll I know we'll get about we've got some headlines we'll get to a little bit later, talking about entry-level people not being as worried as maybe they should be about AI in their job. Um I tend to think it's going to be a large percentage. I don't think it's going to completely be disrupting by the end of the year, maybe, maybe by the end of next year.

Um, I think the the things change a little bit slower than that. But I think it if you are not worrying about it or acknowledging it or you know, at the very least, trying to to factor it in by the end of this year, you'll be making a mistake. So well, I think I think the part of the worry is something that you can't do anything about, right? Depending on your profession, if you're in one of those that is highly AI exposed, where you can, you know, without without a stretch, you can see that AI can replicate that work, can replace the work, not just enhance it, but flat out replace it.

What are you supposed to do? Right. I mean, I I think you should be, I I I suggest erring on the side of concern and then taking steps to not be a victim of it. If you need to switch professions, if you need to pivot, well, you do that sooner than later.

I think, I mean, uh ultimately it's gonna AI is a tool, and I think that it it's a useful, it's a very useful tool um until we get to the stage where it can do things without being completely you know checked. Um I've I've talked to developers and they're like, yeah, it's great for entry-level or mid-level development, but if you need it, you still need a human to check over it because you can't just let it autonomously go live. So as long as that's the case, these senior level positions, uh which we'll tie into kind of what we're gonna talk about in a second, these senior level positions are good for now because they're kind of babysitting the AI, but the people who are gonna get ahead are the ones who train themselves to use it and to make themselves more efficient.

Um, so I don't think you should I I guess I'll I'll try and look at it with the silver line. I don't think you should fear it. I think you should try and embrace it and use it as you know a tool to make you better at your job. Um, and by doing that, somebody's gonna do it, it might as well be you, you know, if I'm talking to a candidate.

I mean, fear, fear is a worthless emotion in this case, right? Um happening regardless. So how are you gonna handle it? Pay attention, be be vigilant, and and protect yourself.

I mean, that's really the message that I give constantly when the subject comes up, because there's no one to look out for you with this, right? Your employer is going to find efficiencies where they can. And if that means getting rid of staff, that's what they're in business to do. I mean, they are not going to be altruistic uh as it relates to this.

Not a not a public company for sure. Uh obligations of shareholders, looking at the bottom line and wanting to increase that. If they can cut headcount to do it, they will. They always have.

So that's where I think just taking protecting your own financial security, your professional security, that is what everyone needs to do and not be dismissive of it. And as I also always say, if I'm wrong, there's no penalty, right? I I could I would love to say, come on with you a year from now and say, wow, I got this wrong, or two years from now, I was chicken little for no reason. But the penalty of this being dismissive of it is very severe for the individuals.

Yeah, I mean, right or wrong, you are you nailed it. I think that the companies are gonna, it's very clear what how the companies are going to react to it. So, and you can't affect that, you know, in in the immediate term. So you need you need to look out for yourself.

That's I've told every candidate, like look out for your own career's well-being, because you can trust that in the this current environment that most companies are not going to they're gonna look out for themselves. Yeah, and thanks to Chris for weighing in on this, saying that most people don't understand their level of exposure. I do you think it's that they don't understand, or they're just not I guess they don't understand because they're not paying close enough attention.

That's my sense because our survey also showed that in for two quarters in a row now, that those who use AI the most are most fearful of it or most concerned about its impact. And that to me is not coincidental. I I as a as a heavy user, I see how powerful it is, and I see how fast it's improving. I mean, that's the thing.

Also, people chalk up uh the current issues with AI is just, hey, this is never gonna work, right? It can't even do simple math, right? It hallucinates, it makes stuff up. Yeah, it's very obvious when you're using AI for writing.

All those things might be true today, but they're not gonna be true in the not too distant future, and that future is coming more rapidly than anything we've ever seen before. Yeah, that's uh your your kind of thought on it is that you have more faith that like the way that it's advancing. Yes, I 100% agree. You need a person to babysit it in a lot of the cases now, and it's not great.

But what about a year from now? And it, you know, chat GPT didn't even exist, you know, what three years from now, you know, three years ago. So think about where you were where we were five years ago, and now you know, just the amount of things that have been automated. And I think it's like you said, it's people who maybe can't comprehend the different things.

They think of Chat GPT, oh, it'll rewrite my emails. Great, that's so useful. Like it can do a lot, and I'm it's not even just chat GPT, there's clause, you know, all of these different tools that most people in my everyday life I talk to, they're like, Oh, I know chat GPT, and that's it. Like, I don't I don't know what anthropic is, I don't know what you know these other tools are.

I've never even heard of them. And that's I think what most people unfortunately kind of pay attention, get in the game. That that's the message. Yep, but we could talk about AI all day, every day.

Yeah, that's not our main topic on this. This is the weekend jobs. So there was a theme this week that that jumped out. It wasn't a huge news week for jobs, but this this theme, and this has been um increasing over the past year, year and a half, and it is entry-level professionals in the workplace, specifically new grads, are having a difficult time.

And and there's lots of reasons for that. But what a couple things were interesting this week, too, a couple reports. ZipRecruiter published its annual grad report, and Bloomberg published this story that parents are spending up to $50,000 a year to help their children land jobs. Let's talk about that one for a minute.

It's an interesting headline and interesting data behind it. Yeah, it's I mean, I 50,000 is a is a huge number, and I have to assume that that's that's obviously more well-off uh parents than than many of them. But the fact that there is that this is a booming industry or becoming a booming industry of career coaching. Um, it's funny that it used to be kind of getting your kid into college was like the that was the big concern and why people paid tutors.

And then while that is still the case, now there's uh there's a burgeoning industry of getting your getting your child out of college and into a job, into a career. Right. So how where's the irony uh of this, right? It's pretty easy to see.

You're we tell our kids go to college, we have for the past couple of generations now, and there's an expectation that there will be a reward for doing that, right? You spend the time, lots of people spend an incredible amount of money, take out loans, you know, take on debt. And then on the other side of it, there's this expectation that there will be a job waiting for you. And that's not happening right now for so many grads, and that hasn't been happening for the past couple of years.

And this is uh this is a uh a giant problem. And I don't blame parents for trying to solve it by writing a check if they can do it, if they have the means. But I highly question the effectiveness of doing so. Uh yeah, I agree.

It's it's just another layer of uh professional help. You know, you've you had your tutors, you had you pay you to get into school, you do that this, and now you've got another layer on it. Like, when does it end? Um, so uh I think so.

How would you feel? So you're a parent, you're not a parent. If you were a parent and you had kids that age, which I do, right? So this is hits a lot closer to home from me, of course.

Um, would you do it if the $50,000 wasn't something that you would miss? And very few people are in that situation, of course, but would you do it? Yes, even say it's say, say it, you know, say it's I don't know, $5,000, $10,000, like something that's like I guess if you truly believed in it, I can see where people would do it, but I'm more skeptical of that. And and it's hard for me to divorce that from my you know actual career where I've I've seen candidates and I've been in tons and tons of interviews.

So if you had no knowledge of the job market and you were kind of lost, like I don't even know how to, you know, I've been saying at my job for whatever, I am you know about to retire, I don't know what the current job market is. It's probably easier to maybe write a check and leave it to a professional. Um, we know that that's not necessarily going to do anything except make you, you know, 10 to 50,000, 10 to $50,000 poorer. But okay.

Well, but put that as put that aside for a minute. But I as we're talking about this, I'm wondering, is it really any different than paying to go to college, right? You're paying to go to college. I I what what are the reasons for the experience, whatever that is?

Yeah, education, but it's you're really paying for the end result. So is that any different than if you pay a career coach? We'll talk about the effectiveness in a second. Is there any difference?

Well, what are what are you getting? I guess what are you getting? Are you paying for the networking opportunity? Is this is this career coach going to introduce you to somebody that you wouldn't be able to get a hold of otherwise?

If that's the case, I could see there being some benefit to it. Um, at least with a with a career degree, you you you come out with a piece of paper and a degree, and no one can take that away from you. A career coach is effectively just giving you advice that you could really get in a lot of cases for a lot cheaper or free. Yeah, I mean, I I I think it's kind of the same thing if you know it's a means to an end.

Um, but career coaches, what what are they? There's nothing that a career coach can do, in my opinion, that you can't find for yourself online. There's so much free data out there. I mean, we have our own free job course that we wrote for for entry-level grads.

That it's it's our knowledge. We know how hiring happens, of course, because of the business that we're in. Um I wonder what the thought is of paying someone. What are they what are they supposed to do?

I mean, if you're if you're if you're buying an introduction, if you're buying a network, maybe, but just for guidance, I see that as a complete waste of money. Yeah. Um, like I said, the only value I could really see is if it's giving you some sort of networking opportunities, opportunities that open you up to people that you wouldn't be able to get a hold of otherwise, which I don't think is generally the case with career coaches. They're not necessarily, I mean, maybe they they they've got some career fairs or something that they can tell you about.

But I mean, we uh we saw in a lot of these that grads, you know, grads are saying that 88% of net uh of them are saying that networking is what got them hired at their first job, you know, in the first place. Uh, and that's not even a necessarily a new thing. I mean, that's I that's gone back. We've seen study after study, networking is the number knowing somebody is the way to get your foot in the door.

And that hasn't changed. I don't think that's going to change. That's been the case for a long time. Um, and we see that you know kids who who take advantage of that do have results to you to your point.

The data indicates that those who work early in college, they also have results. The data very clearly shows that too. So I think it's this is the success happens because of the steps you're willing to take. It's not sitting back and waiting for things to come to you.

It's not because someone else is going to do it for you. Young people who are motivated and ambitious and take steps that most aren't willing to take are the ones who are having the results. So the data very clearly shows that right now. Well, it's interesting.

You said like you say that people who work during college have have better success. And I think those kind of two, those two things go hand in hand. You worked, I mean, that is literally how I got my first job was a part-time job in college. I graduated.

I my manager knew that I had graduated. They introduced me to you know the higher up. I went from there, I got an interview, and and that's kind of how I even got my first job out of college. And I feel like that's probably the case with if you are a working person, you're meeting co-workers.

Who are the people that you generally network with? It's co-workers and you know, past managers and whatnot. So I think just that exposure to the professional world is what really helps people out. Yeah, the according to the report, 81.

6% of students. I'm sorry, this the employment rate for after college for those who worked was 81.6 versus 40.7 for those who didn't.

Yeah, that data really jumps out at you. And it makes me think like the uh there's there's so many different uh facets to it. People who didn't have to work during college maybe are are better off. Maybe they they come from a higher you know uh earning family.

So maybe they're not having to, so they kind of just rust on their laurels a little bit, whereas it's a different you have a different mindset maybe of people who had to work their way through college. There's there's all sorts of different things, but yeah, like you said, the numbers don't lie. Um and it's interesting that because we look at that, you know, we see we see these numbers, but only 36% of these new grads that were surveyed in this said that AI knowledge mattered, getting them into their entry-level job.

Um that that that's a little bit interesting to me. Well, I mean, that sounds low, except if you really stop and think about it, it's it's I mean, it's yeah, it's a third. Right? I mean, it's weird how we we read these surveys, and depending on the angle that the writer uh wants to pitch or or how they want to present it, you could say only 36%.

But I look at that. And say one out of three jobs for entry level are requiring AI skills now. That to me is massive. That what a shift for something that didn't exist just a few years ago.

Now a third of the jobs or employers who are hiring expect that. That's that's a big deal. Well, most it seems like in a lot of these entry-level jobs that you know, communication skills, things like that are really crucial and being able to use AI. And when I say when you say AI for the general person, a lot of them think of rewriting stuff, Chat GPT, it'll rewrite, make you communicate better.

It'll help you organize your tasks and whatnot. And that's the kind of stuff that's going to make you succeed in an entry-level job. So I wonder if that's what people look at when they say entry-level helped them succeed or it was necessary in their job. Well, it's it's it's an interesting dilemma right now because we know that we're back to AI again, right?

How do we sorry? I took us off the the path. All roads lead back to AI right now, but all roads are leading to AI. So how can we not get there?

61% of the roles most likely to be replaced by AI are entry-level. That came out um in a Boston developing uh group report a couple weeks ago. So these are the jobs that are the most AI exposed right now, although I'd argue that management roles are next. But right now, these entry-level jobs, repetitive tasks, right?

They don't require strategic knowledge. They don't require a lot of experience um in order to be effective, right? Or first hand experience that that you know that knowledge work really needs to um entail at some point. You don't have that when you're entry-level, so it makes sense that that's what's a what AI is eating into right now.

Well, it's also kind of unfortunately getting rid of the learn as you go type mentality where you're expect you have a certain base level, you get there, you learn your job, and you be you grow in your job. A lot of these companies, because they're they're getting rid of these basic level tasks, they're kind of expecting almost entry-level people to come in at like mid-level knowledge, which is I can't see that ending well. Um, you know, how are you gonna get these people in the senior level roles if they've never, they don't even understand basic found fundamental things of their of their position.

If you're getting rid of all of the, you know, teaching people how to how data is in entered or basic data analysis or even just you know basic communication writing, how are you gonna get somebody who is a senior leader if they've never had to do that? I'm I guess I'm a that's my my my boomer thought there is I I still believe that like it learning things, learning how to do things manually, like you need to understand it before you can really automate it and do all these you know extra advanced kind of techniques.

Because if you don't understand the fundamentals of it, how how can you build upon that? And I think that's gonna affect you know people in their jobs. Yeah, so the there's so much reported about the the bottom rungs of the career ladder going away, but there's now reports coming out about the mid-level rungs of of the career ladder that are going to go away too. Because to your point, if you don't develop um those skills and traits that will allow you to be an effective leader, well, then leadership's going to suffer.

As I alluded to a minute ago, you see AI starting to eat into what could be management roles normally, right? Because why do you need people to manage if AI can do such an effective job at that? So it this is this is going to have a compounding effect. But while that sounds bad, if the companies aren't worried about that because they expect AI to be able to take over a lot of what would otherwise be management responsibilities, who who's going to do anything about it?

Well, it's it it kind of all leads to this current you know state of of where things are with the job market is that there's a low, there's low turnover, but there's low hiring, whereas everybody's just kind of I feel it feels almost like everybody's just kind of hunkering down and waiting to see what's going to happen. And yeah, we've brought up the there's the term out there job hugging, and that's kind of feeds into that where people don't want to people don't want to make moves.

Companies are they would rather just keep their known assets and they're like it's you know more expensive to kind of risk it on a on somebody out there. If they are gonna get rid of people, they would like to try and automate it away and and see if that that position was even necessary to begin with. Um we're back to you know, officially back to pre-pandemic levels. Um, so we're not at the the pandemic hiring boom.

It's um it's gonna be a wild ride, I think, over the for the next year. Yeah, so I happened to have a call this week with a group of peers from around the country who are staffing company owners and executives, and several of them reported that their clients are actually slowing down hiring because they first want to see if AI can replace a job when someone leaves before they backfill it with a human, almost as a default measure right now. Um that's terrifying, is it not? I mean, they're seeing if they can get by.

Yeah, if they they're like, I'll I'll keep who I've got, but if they end up leaving, let's see if we can get by without it. And that, yeah, that's uh that is not good news for the job market. Can you blame them? No, I mean, uh from a purely, I guess, you know, take the emotion out of it and and look at the how their company is doing it, is it's it's a smart move to see like, do I really need this or can I find some efficiency here, cut costs here?

Um, but if every company is doing that, expand that out, and kind of you that's where you end up with, you know, this the high level of the Gen Z unemployment, people in the entry level can't find jobs. Where does that happen? You know, where does that take us in 10 years from now? No, we're good.

No, we're good, unfortunately. And there's one more story that came out this week related to AI that I thought was interesting. It was a Gallup poll that came out that said your manager basically is going to determine how much you use AI. So managers who support it and encourage workers to use AI, uh, their employees are going to be the ones that use it more often.

And that's a natural thing. But back to your point a minute ago about you need to do this on your own. Anyone who hears this and has seen this report, that's that should be something that alarms you and that you should protect against because don't rely on your manager to be the one, because a lot of them won't, right? I mean, we we see in the data, older workers who are toward retirement, near retirement, getting at the end of their career, they're not going to be as heavy users when it comes to AI.

So it's natural that they won't encourage others to be heavy users either or even use it at all. So it's something to be aware of and to and to protect against if you because you really do have to take accountability and ownership of this on your own. And and large companies as well. Uh, it's you know, we know that a large company is going to take a long time to maybe implement new uh new policies, new changes.

So yeah, it's that's something that you should it and it in there with the amount of knowledge out there and even AI itself that will teach you about how to use AI, like you should be at least having a base level rudimentary knowledge. There shouldn't be anybody that is below their, you know, below retirement age in the workforce that has not had some exposure, does not at least have basic to intermediate level knowledge of how to use various easily accessible AI tools. Well, one stat uh from this Gallup report in particular jumped out at me is that 43% of non-users, non-AI users are ethically opposed to it.

Now that's a that's an interesting, I mean, we've we all hear about data centers and you know eating up land and and power costs and and water and whatnot. So that's it's it is that is a that is gonna be a growing concern, I believe, um, especially with younger workers, where they they think not only is maybe that are the data centers bad for the environment, they think, well, this is also the use of it, you know, in theory is bad for the job market as these companies go to replace you know human workers.

What what do you do when 10% of the population, even I'm gonna use a small number, 10% of the population can't find a job? Like that it's not sustainable. So the the the articles I've seen and the people I've seen that I've talked to that are say Gen Z and maybe young millennial to Gen Z, like that's uh that is a prevalent thought that I've I've seen in that there. What not wanting to contribute?

Not wanting to contribute effectively to the to what they believe is the uh I guess negative change in the in the current job market. That's a risky path to go down. It is, yeah. I mean, I I guess if you're if you're if you're an entry-level person and you can't find a job anyway, what like what do you have to lose?

I don't know. Well, I mean, you can take I guess you can take that moral stand, I I suppose, uh potentially at your own peril. But if you're look, if your conviction is strong enough for whatever it's based on, then great. Who are we to to tell you otherwise?

But that is going to come with some. It's the more the more common stance is that people begrudgingly they may not be like excited about it, but they use it because it's a necessary tool, maybe a necessary evil they they would you know consider it, but they're nonetheless learning it, using it. I personally believe like look at it as it's a tool, it's a tool like anything else. Um, and you can either fear it or learn to wield it.

So yeah, we're and we're seeing you know some comments about you know, will it will it burden the government, you know, unemployment claims uh jumping through the roof. This is part of the you know, so burden the government by and we're gonna be burning burning the taxpayers, right? We're gonna be burdening all of us uh with that. I mean our society um is not equipped for what's potentially coming.

Um, and I I don't have a solution. I can't even offer a solution. I think the government in particular is going to pay attention to this at a point that's both too late, and I don't know what they would do about it anyway. Right?

We saw the report that came out about two months ago now that went viral. It wasn't a report, it was just um it was an essay a guy wrote who's who's in the AI space. He was warning his friends and family about the potential impact on jobs and asking them to not be dismissive of it. It was a it was a piece that blew up, had over 100 million views on on Twitter, on X.

And that same week, I noticed that multiple people in Congress were referring to it and saying we have to do something about it. And then I haven't heard him talk about it since. But my quote, my thought was what are you gonna do? Right?

At the top level, the the administration uh and those in it continue to tell us that there is no reason to be concerned. If anything, the AI is creating jobs, so they're not motivated to jump in and help. But what could they do anyway? I mean, the train has left the station at this point.

Yeah, it's uh hopefully somebody smarter than me can come up with some ideas about that, but it does, it does, it does seem like it can be uh a you know an out of your hands type of thing. It's it's something that the large corporations are gonna run with. And if you trust them to, they're gonna do what's in their best interest or what is in their top leader's best interest, which is not necessarily you as a worker's best interest. But so you like we said earlier, you're gonna have to kind of take care of yourself and and and protect yourself in as best you can in this wild west of uh automation.

Yeah, and the and the numbers that continue to come out, I mean, where if I after looking at all of them, I think it's cons I can conservatively say that over the next few years, and we'll try to put a specific time frame around it, but somewhere between two and five years, and this is conservative, I think it could be significantly more, that 10% of the workforce could be US workforce could be displaced. Right? Now you could argue about new jobs that will be created. We don't know what those will look like any level yet, and there will be jobs, but 10% on top of unemployment we already have, call 4%, and we're talking an additional 17 million US workers losing their jobs over the next few years because of something that didn't exist a few years ago.

This is not a natural evolution, there's nothing natural about this, uh, but it is happening, and so potentially devastating to say the least, even if it's not the majority of jobs. And we see those numbers too. So the even if you take the conservative view, that's where I think there's not enough the alarm isn't sounding loud enough. How about that?

That's the way I'll phrase it. Well, we and yeah, I was trying to find the uh the article that was talking about you know the different ways that uh they've done studies of like what could be potential uh solutions for it. And I think the only one that they came out with was maybe some sort of AI tax basically affect the same way that you would tax or that they used to tax pollution. Uh because yeah, if you've got 10% of the population that the market does not work if the company if the companies can't find people who have money to buy their products, how you know who are you selling to if if you've got large percentages of the population that can't afford it?

It's um it's a bad recipe. And uh I think while I do think that there's regulation and stuff that needs to happen, I agree with you. I don't think it's gonna be fast enough. And I mean what is that regulation?

I don't know. So here's here's where that gets even more interesting. Right now, there's a tax benefit to buying AI technologies. Yeah, you you get to you get to write that off of dollar for dollar.

It's a business expense that goes against, you know, uh so that is very straightforward. The cost of employing someone has a burden that's significantly greater because of the taxes that you pay. And a lot of people don't realize that. Yeah, I I I posted a video when that report came out about a month ago now talking about the relative tax burden of having an employee versus buying a technology solution.

Employers don't pay the payroll taxes, employers pay more payroll taxes than than than most people realize. Is employers pay unemployment tax, they pay federal uh unemployment for federal and state, they pay federal income tax, they pay workers' compensation, they pay social security tax, they pay Medicare. So employers contribute, and this is the BLS's number, it's not mine, 42 cents on top of every dollar they pay an employee. And it's a dollar for dollar when you pay when you buy a technology.

So there is actually a tax advantage to not. Christopher just had a comment on that in the you know early 1900s, most people in the worked on farms, farms became mechanized, farm jobs fell, total job, you know, on the total job market, how do we adapt? Well, new jobs were created, and that's what that's kind of the argument that people are making with with AIs that new jobs are going to be created, but it's automating things at such a scale that if if a new job is created where you know it was two people before, this new job is only a one-person job.

So, what do you do in that situation? It's not two new jobs are created, it's one new job is created. Yeah, and and well, AI is specifically affecting impacting farms already, and that's going to be it be a whole you've got drones that can harvest entire fields. Well, you have you have that, you have robots that can do that.

There's a there's a product, I can't think of the uh the manufacturer's name. I don't think it's John Deere, it might be, but it it has the ability to roll over a field and zap all the weeds, it immediately identifies uh the uh good plant versus bad plant. It kills the weeds. There's video of this thing, it's it's phenomenal to watch.

There's you know technology that now allows cows just to basically milk themselves. They walk into the stall, their milk, no human involvement. And so this is all happening too. I know this was about the the comment was about how um you know technology changed the need for labor.

I just think the rapidity of what's happening now is what's different and the use in so many areas at once. Every industry is rushing to leverage this technology right now. And I suspect a lot of companies will use it or try to use it, it won't be as effective as they hoped it would, but they're gonna cut the jobs anyway and go down swinging to try. Um, and I I see a big thing.

And there was a lot of turmoil when you know the jobs were overturned as well. So let's not like overlook and say like it was a smooth transition, not to mention there was other, you know, economic factors like we getting into wars and whatnot. So um a lot of these those things. I I think that some of it will translate.

Um, but like you said, it's if it's changed, it's changing at quadrupled the rate, or even you know, even quintupled the rate that it did before, and people can't adapt that fast. No, they they can't. So, Peter, I think we've covered the most part. There weren't a lot of headlines this week.

It was kind of a quiet week in in the job market. Uh whether that's good news or bad news. Well, it's it's you know, there's so much waiting in the wings, right? What's gonna happen with the war?

We it seems like every day we're it's ending, it's not, it's it's gonna get worse, it's gonna go away altogether. I mean, I I we that's a moving target. And so I think companies um in the market as a whole is largely paralyzed by that, by not knowing how to react. We're in a wait and see kind of mood, it seems like that's the prevalent uh feeling in a in a lot of the companies and managers I've talked to.

Yeah, so we're not we're not seeing any major movements yet, and and and even though a lot of people won't believe this, the data does indicate that the job market isn't bad. Historically, unemployment is low. We're we saw the data that just came out recently from um uh you know, again, government data, so take it from what you will. It basically shows given the population decline, we don't need, or not the population decline, but the people leaving the job market, we don't need as much job creation.

So the historically we've needed to see about 150 to 200,000 jobs a month added for the economy to be thriving. And now it's close to zero. I mean, that that's the reality of the numbers. So that doesn't make anyone who's a job seeker feel better, but from the for the economy as a whole, that is what the data tells us that we don't need hundreds of thousands of jobs created each month to to thrive.

Yeah, that's that's what that's what we're we're told. Uh I the the job market, people on the job market, I'm sure that's uh a big uh conciliate uh consolation to them. Um but yeah, it seems like these, you know, a lot of these industries, they're they're not uh there's not as many people needed, but uh it's still you know, we're gonna we're gonna see some changes, I think. Yeah.

So Christopher, again, thanks, thanks for your comments uh on this. Yeah, the straight of uh hormones reopening. Is it open? Is it not from day to day?

But I I can uh confidently say when when this is passed, hopefully it it passes as soon as possible with this little disruption and and and death and everything that goes along with that as soon as possible, then we can get back to focusing on the our economy here and and doing um as best we can for the people who are in the workforce because right now, even though the data indicates that it's not a bad market, it is bad for a lot of people. Yeah, the overall feeling certain we based on our surveys seems to indicate otherwise.

So, yeah, the the data says one thing. People though seem to they're not in a overly optimistic mood about the job market. They're worried about the future, and I can't say they shouldn't be. Can't blame them.

Yeah, not right now. So that's it for today. Thank you, thank you for for joining us. We appreciate all the comments and and uh sorry we were a little glitchy at the beginning there.

Yeah. We'll be back next week.