Mapping the Future: Local Government Reorganisation, Political Change and Development Delivery

Speaker A: Happy Monday and welcome back to the Truth About Local Government. Local reorganization is continuing obviously uh, to be a major uh, focus point for the local government community and also those services that support the local government community. I'm delighted today to have the associate director, uh, and close personal friend of mine, uh, Dominic Stanford, uh, from Devcoms on to talk about, they've got this really fantastic product. If you've not had a look at it yet, go and have a look at their uh, interactive map on local government reorganization. We're going to be talking about the map, we're going to be talking about what the changes are at the moment and we're mainly also be talking around some of the politics changes that we're going to see uh, in the new regions or the new councils that will be created and what that means for development because obviously the housing targets aren't going anywhere even with all the changes that are going on. So firstly Dominic, thank you so much for coming on today. How are you?

Speaker B: It's my pleasure Matt. I'm very well, thank you. Good, good to see you again.

Speaker A: Great to see you too. And I guess first question is how on earth have you guys managed to put such great, I would say market leading content out so quickly on lgr?

Speaker B: Uh, it's a great question Matt. What we wanted to do was build a tool where you uh, could have a very, very quick search as to what local government reorganization boundaries are going to be shaping the areas that you operate in. So we've built uh, a new mapping tool uh, which plots all of the local government boundaries and uh, the new unit authorities, which districts are being absorbed into them. And just put that on a, you called it a product map but that implies that it's paid for. It's not, it's entirely free to use. Um, so anyone can jump uh, on there, find out what's going on in their area. Essentially um, in terms of why we've done it, uh, we as a company try to keep our clients updated on what's happening in politics and planning. That's um, kind of the modus operandi of what we do at Devcoms. And the question kept coming back, uh, what does this mean for my site? And um, where will my site fit in this new uh, local government world? So we plotted it for that reason and m, uh, made it free to use so that the whole industry, all of the uh, public sector and private sector can use it. It's relevant to us all.

Speaker A: No it really is. And I think the first thing is always is it's empowering to know just what's happening because there is just so much comms at the moment that's coming out. We obviously have had delays. Some areas we're still waiting just absolute final parts there. But it must be so difficult for your customers who are there just trying to run a business and trying to figure out what on earth is happening.

Speaker B: Absolutely. I think the scale of change and the speed of change, particularly since um, the Labour government came in in 2024 when it comes to planning, uh, has been pretty relentless. So uh, whether that's updates to the mppf, whether it's new housing targets, whether it's uh, local government reorganization, new boundaries, whether we're talking about devolution and strategic authorities that are going to sit above these new LGR boundaries, whether we're talking about uh, since Andy Burnham came in, what that new devolution looks like in different areas, new powers for mayors and so on. All of that is happening at the same time as uh, strategic, um, sds, uh, strategic development strategies are also being drawn up. That's going to sit in some instances across some of these new boundaries that we've just learned about. So the scale and speed of change is what I, uh, suppose causing the most anxiety, um, but also the most kind of opportunity for uh, businesses like ours to help clients navigate that new landscape, uh, and try and articulate what it means, who the most influential people are going to be, how decision making is going to be carried out in the years to come. Um, and essentially that's the service that we provide. Adding the kind of politics to planning, if you like.

Speaker A: Yeah, because I mean every year at Reef, it's the same conversation. We want to invest in what, we want to invest in areas across the uk, uh, you know, large funds, we want to back that, you know, developers wanting to develop. But it is so complex, um, and particularly the political shifts that we're seeing as well in terms of organizations that you don't yet exist, but yet we're still trying to figure out what the, the views will be in those areas. And, and also again we've got the massive issue when it comes to capacity within the, the planning system itself. And you know, you and I both said it many times how much we admire the work that goes on in local government planning and trying to get uh, you know, just the sheer volume through, but it's really, really difficult for, for businesses at the moment. What kind of impact do you think LGR is having just in terms of not asking for specifics here, but is it Slowing things down, do you feel at the moment, is it creating sufficient, I guess, friction in the system to kind of make people think.

Speaker B: So what's really interesting is when you, you look at the kind of local politics of lgr. So you've got, uh, leading into this uh, announcement a couple of weeks ago that um, defined what boundaries were most likely to be for these areas. Uh, all of the different district councils, county councils, other stakeholders across the political spectrum submitted competing proposals for their areas. So in some areas, take Staffordshire for example, you had an east west model, you had a north south model, you had a basically isolate Stoke on Trent model. Um, because in lots of these areas different districts are run by different political parties, they have different political interests. So inevitably they had different policies or proposals based upon what served their political interest or their interpretation of what was right for the areas that they represent. So you had this really kind of fractious, uh, competitive environment where all of these proposals were being put forward. The situation now is the government have made their uh, stance known in these areas. So the kind of political fallout that now follows is what I see as being the next kind of immediate chapter of disruption, if you like. So just to dive into that, what are those kind of different challenges? What would that look like? In some areas we know that judicial reviews are going to be happening. We know that in other areas, um, particularly reform and Conservative Councils are ah, planning to challenge uh, decisions in the courts. Reform in particular, um, in those kind of early areas that you mentioned where uh, there were kind of those fast track areas, um, we know that they're intending to kind of start that process quite quickly. So you've got the immediate impact of potential delay whilst the courts kind of consider what these things mean. And it's worth highlighting at this point that reform have a pretty good track record of uh, challenging the government in court and winning. So you'll recall leading into all of this, there are a load of local elections that were cancelled in order to allow local government reorganisation in those uh, fast tracks places. Reform took the government to court and before the court case was heard, uh, the government folded the day before and um, put those local elections back on. So there is precedent for reform, challenging the government and winning. So although we're working on the basis that actually most of these boundaries are now set, we haven't yet been through that kind of legal process and um, we're talking about um, that happening all over. You've had uh, the leader of Rushcliffe Council saying that he's looking into his options. You've got uh, reform led Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, all saying that they're intending to challenge um, across the board, uh, again Staffordshire talking about uh, Stoke on Trent. The leader of Newcastle under Lyme Council has also said that he wants to challenge it. So that's kind of the immediate risk if you like. From um, our perspective the other elements are how politicians respond. So we work on the basis obviously that elected members and their administrations have a public duty to carry out the services of their council. And I'm not suggesting that bin collections are going to stop or parks aren't going to get maintained. But when you're talking about local plan creation, for instance, if you're a councillor sat in a district that's just starting a local plan process and you know that your district council is going to get abolished in 18 months time or 2 years time, why would you go through the political headache of releasing all of your greenbelt sites or uh, you know, having conversations with people to explain that they're going to have to take 3,000 new homes on the edge of their, uh, the edge of their settlement or doubling the size of the village that they've been living in for 50 years. Why would you politically take that headache when bluntly in two years time it's someone else's problem. So you've got, depending upon politicians and depending upon the authority, quite a differing view of how important it is for them to actually crack on with the important strategic decision making that they are elected to do. So I'm expecting there to be a bit of lethargy if you like, um, in a lot of these districts that are supposed to be going through a local plan process. Um, so it'll be interesting on planning specifically to see how the government go about forcing districts that are going to be abolished to actually carry out local plan making processes in particular. Um, so that's one element. The other is that some of these politicians in district council, so your elected councillors in district and borough councils are going to be looking at this change and going, do I want to join this new authority? Is it worth the headache or is this my time to kind of take my retirement and exit at this point? So because the boundaries change, the authority is new, you're likely to see quite a significant changing of the guard in terms of those key decision makers and who they are and how they operate. So again the faces that we've got familiar with, um, particularly in planning and development, if you've got sites in a particular district, the chances are you've got a working relationship with the portfolio Holder for planning or the cabinet member for the highways or the leader of the council. It's not a given that those people are going to be around in the new authority and it's certainly not a given that they're going to be running those new authorities because again as these boundaries change, the political makeup of that particular area also changes. So if you've got Conservative district councils next to a Labour district council, but you've got a Reform county council, the new authority could end up being a Hund authority where nobody can form an outright majority. It could end up being one way or another. So the figures that you're used to seeing are likely to change. So that inevitably brings disruption, it brings culture change. But um, from our perspective obviously also brings opportunity um, in that a new uh, institution doesn't have the same legacy. Institutional thinking. In some areas we might get new ways of working, we might get more open members that are happy to have discussions with the private sector, uh, and be kind of less closed off than we've seen some of the authorities that have had administrations um, in place for quite a long time.

Speaker A: It is a double edged sword though isn't it, in terms of when you have new elected members who haven't previously run. Because uh, you know, having knowledge how the system works and the processes can help, see, help can be uh, can help kind of fluid decision making and exploit processes. But at the same time you're right, they do bring a fresh perspective and maybe a different level of view on things.

Speaker B: Yeah, you've hit the nail on the head there Matt. In the last, particularly the last kind of just over a year, 18 months or so, the emergence of reform as an actual party that are running uh, local government now, the emergence of the Green Party in particular in the last set of local elections in May, um, but equally turning to places like uh, Birmingham or areas of London actually, you've got really strong independents that are now forming groups and operations. You've got Jeremy Corbyn's party challenging on one side. You've even got RESTORE taking control uh, of a lot of seats down in their kind of uh, their heartlands down in the southeast. So the political landscape has shifted monumentally. Um, the kind of two party duopoly if you like, is no longer um, the case. And obviously we're experiencing a little bit of a Burnham bounce. But there's no indication at this point in time that we're going to be returning to a kind of Tory Labour dominated political landscape. We're in five party politics now that appears to be the era that we're in. So again, as all these boundaries change, the administrations that form not only are going to have no institutional knowledge in terms of the new institution formed as a unitary authority, but also in some instances very little party institutional knowledge. You know, if a new conservative administration comes in they can lean on their local mp, they can lean on the central party, they can lean on other people that were leaders of councils in the instances of reform in particular, or although to some degree greens as well, there isn't that institutional knowledge of how to actually govern in an authority. So so much of that gets lost in this new age, um, which you're right does bring in opportunities because new ways of working, um, and you know, new perspectives on things. It's not necessarily a bad thing in its, in its own right, but that loss of knowledge. And we saw in you know, some authorities in the local elections this May and the county councils last May where you know, up to uh, 50, 60, 70% of councillors lost their seats and were replaced by entirely new members and new members that have come from non traditional backgrounds. They're not former councillors, they're not kind of, you know, party parliamentary staffers or whatever else. Um, the other kind of backgrounds of the traditional parties, they're kind of by and large unpolitical folk that have ended up running authorities. So the learning curve that these, these members have had to go on has been uh, really, really significant and particularly because the new unitary authorities are going to have five year terms and um, um because they're obviously all out elections as well in the shadow elections next year. The scale of knowledge that may well be missing in these new authorities is going to be really, really significant.

Speaker A: It is as well. And the other bit to this as well is investors want predictability, stability, a guarantee on return and you simply can't provide that at the moment or you can do. But I mean for example, what I mean by that is from your position at Devcoms, you politically neutralize, you de risk developments, you're that interface with the local authority and the political dynamic of that. Um, and that's obviously where you add so much value. Do you see at the moment any developers, I mean in terms of councils that are in financial distress and um, their ability, I guess their risk appetite to challenge, particularly if they don't have a local plan.

Speaker B: Um, I think we're definitely in a window, what seems like a window of opportunity for the private sector at the moment when it comes to um, house building and development. So coming back to that scale of change that we've seen councils are being told they need to update their local plans. But the housing targets that have been uh, ramped up by the government from December, January 24 25, they're already in play. So essentially the scale of the housing crisis is right now. Even under the government's new local plan making process, which is a 30 month process plus a few months at the beginning for preparation, you've ended up with at least a two and a half, three year window where the government are saying the housing crisis is now get building and councils can't physically make their local plans fast enough to essentially kind of control development. So there's a massive um, window of opportunity for speculative applications to say the crisis is now we're here to deliver it. The councils can't demonstrate a five year housing land supply. Uh, and so it's kind of to some degree open season in the sense that a lot of developers are testing councils putting in applications speculatively. Uh, and an enormous amount of that is going to be um, tested at the appeal process. It's going to be the Planning Inspectorate that are ultimately having to make these rulings either because councils refuse the applications, um, or don't determine applications. And we're seeing that strategy implemented by quite a lot of local authorities simply just not determining the applications that have been submitted. Uh, and developers will appeal on the basis of non determination and send it up to the inspectorate to deal with.

Speaker A: And in terms of, with lgr, the tool that you. Well, there's not. Are we calling it a tool?

Speaker B: Oh yeah, it's a, it's a map. A map tool. Yeah. I should plug the URL as well, shouldn't I? LGR, uh.devcoms.co.uk.

Speaker A: yeah, fantastic. And the link will be also been to the, in the, in the, in the podcast episode summary. I mean, okay, I can't even ask this question. Do you see any chance LGR not happening?

Speaker B: So we talked about this quite a lot when Starmer, Sakia Starmer resigned and it was clear that he was going, uh, and there was obviously a moment where, you know, Burnham wasn't an mp, he wasn't a candidate. Uh, and we were kind of looking at who the other contenders were and what that would mean and whether or not LGR would be a priority. Um, I think given this LGR announcement happened, it uh, was pretty much the final act of Starmer's administration. And um, because Burnham has committed um, so heavily to devolution, this LGR process is kind of the starting point. For a lot of that broader devolution and the two things get conflated quite a lot. That LGR is devolution, it isn't. It's a reorganization of local government. As it says on the tin. Devolution is the next step. So that's adding in the strategic authorities that sit above those unitary authorities which typically might have elected mayors or, you know, some kind of figurehead, um, that again, coming back to the boundaries are quite often, we expect, going to be crossing the unitary authority boundaries that have just been set. So you might, for example Warwickshire, you have a new North Warwickshire and South Warwickshire unitary authority model. But surely for a strategic authority you would have a mayor of Warwickshire and you'd have that as one authority. So there's still that kind of to come next. And because Burnham has committed so heavily to devolution, you can't. It would be an odd thing to do to pull the plug on LGR now. Um, what I would say is that I could foresee quite a bit of delay. So we're expecting these shadow elections which will elect members to the new unitary authorities for that 12 month period where they're kind of starting the process of setting up the authority, creating a constitution, working out how committees are going to run and all of that kind of stuff. We saw with the, um, kind of the trailblazers that the fast track priority areas that were ahead of the rest of the country, we saw that process suffer quite a bit of delay. Um, so I wouldn't be surprised if either of those shadow elections are postponed a year or more as the actual logistics of trying to set up a new authority and get the elections in place, um, kind of takes place.

Speaker A: Whilst I don't disagree with you, the other bit that's quite scary is, is the number of local authorities in the district level that are saying we can't afford a delay, as in we won't actually get, you know, have to issue section 114. So you've kind of got to go, well, it's a rock and a hard place, you know, do you take the, the jump before you're ready to jump, um, knowing that it'd be difficult, or do you just stay where you are, knowing that you are going to have to have intervention financially to, you know, sustain services.

Speaker B: So that, that also brings in a, ah, kind of more fascinating minutiae, uh, element of this LGR process. So county councils quite often, and district councils obviously, um, own quite a lot of land for a county council. If your county council is getting split in half, how do you go about dividing up the assets of said county council if your land values are higher in the north versus the south, the north absorb all of the high value lands at the county, county council own, or do they get some kind of kickback from the land that ends up in the southern parcel? So all of that needs to be defined. And then you've got elements of, um, thinking of uh, two kind of examples. Derbyshire, where all of the economic heart of Derbyshire, which is obviously around Derby City, gets poured into the southern Derbyshire, uh, unitary authority. But quite a lot of the deprived areas in um, Amber Valley for instance, end up being pushed into the north. So you end up kind of, in some instances taking out the kind of economic kind, uh, of heartlands where, you know, business happens, where business rates are paid and so on, and then ending up with largely residential or poorer areas split, uh, out from it. So again, how do these new authorities remain viable when the economics of the authority has changed so much? And then the final element, we were speaking to a leader of the council recently and I won't name the uh, district council in question, um, but essentially they're not that keen on the fact that they've ran a healthy budget surplus for several years, making sure that um, they can deliver the services and be financially responsible. They're going to get lumped in with a couple of their neighbors who perhaps either have struggled more to remain financially afloat that are closer to uh, that effective bankruptcy point. And they're not that keen on the idea of their reserves being absorbed to subsidize their neighbors who were less uh, financially astute than they were. So you've got instances where this, particularly with the council's going, well, I've got, you know, x tens of millions in reserves. I'm going to spend that in the next 12 months so that it doesn't get lost and end up propping up the neighbors, uh, that they're going to get lumped in with. So again, how the government respond to that and we know from the uh, fast track areas that there are measures and means that section notices that the government can issue so that any expenditure over say, a million quid has to be signed off by, uh, a responsible officer. And the responsible officer has a duty to make sure that essentially councils aren't spending all of their money before they get absorbed into a unitary. But again, how politicians respond to the new landscape in their decision making is really, is going to be especially fascinating. A combination of either wanting to spend loads of money right now, right here, or not do Anything because it's too much of a headache and they'll rather just see out their retirement and let somebody else deal with it. Um, or again, and this is an element of the boundaries shifting, you've got significant, uh, members with significant profile or strategic roles right now that don't live in the area that their new authority is going to be. So they. In a county model, you can live anywhere in the county and stand for a ward or a division on the other side of the county. If your county has just been split in half and you don't live in the ward that you represented, half of the county that the new authority formed, you can't stand there. So you've got members who are also going to have to chop and change where they sit or, uh, the wards that they stand in, uh, which again, causes a load of disruption and the internal battles that are going to come forward, as in theory, we're going to have, uh, a lot fewer councillors in the years to come. So you've got all of these elected members that are going to be vying for, uh, a small selection of so called safe seats, if there are any of those left, um, in order to try and position themselves. So it's not just disruption within the councils, it's also disruption within the local political associations, um, as that kind of process takes on.

Speaker A: And that is why, sir, you are in such high demand at the moment, because it is incredibly complex and at a very simple level. It's very human experience that we're going through a massive change process and it's just trying to keep the complex simple so you can keep on building homes and building communities. Dominic, we've run out of time for today, um, but thank you so much for your time and keep, uh, up the great work.

Speaker B: It's been a pleasure speaking to you, Matt. Cheers.

Speaker A: Please check out the, uh, URL for the tool that Devcoms have created. And thank you so much to Alliance Leisure for continuing to sponsor this podcast, uh, and for putting up with me as I move jobs. So just getting back up and spinning now. Obviously, uh, Alliance Ledger provide Ledger services to local authorities and public sector organizations across the UK, the UK's leading leisure provider, and also have the UK leisure framework. So check that all out. Have a nice day. Bye for now.