The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost · 2026-09-16 · 47 min
Key moments - from our scoring
Substance score
64 / 100
Five dimensions, 20 points each
Thomas Peterffy, who founded Interactive Brokers in 1978 and built it to a $160 billion market cap, discusses the drivers behind the company's 40% annual earnings growth over the past five years. He argues that while interest rates may rise to demonstrate Fed independence, gradual increases pose no threat to stocks, and he rejects the case for economic slowdown given geopolitical competition with China. On AI, Peterffy challenges valuation concerns by comparing Nvidia's 27x price-to-earnings multiple against expected 70% earnings growth, noting that open-source models will drive productivity gains across all sectors - not just AI companies. He's concerned about hyperscalers' overcapitalization in compute, which will eventually depress prices and force writedowns. Peterffy describes his long-held vision for prediction markets through Interactive Brokers' Forecast Trader platform, launched in 2024 and significantly expanded in 2025. After building a phantom version a decade ago (later copied by Kalshi and Polymarket), he secured CFTC licensing and now positions financial prediction markets as ultimately generating the majority of Interactive Brokers' future earnings. He also flags systemic leverage and over-the-counter derivatives concentration as key risks, argues political prediction markets are more accurate than polls, and emphasizes Interactive Brokers' AI integration advantages.
The earnings growth comes from net interest income gains as interest rates rose from historic lows, combined with strong equity market performance and increasing volumes from professional traders and institutional clients using the platform's advanced execution and risk management tools.
He believes valuations are justified when compared to earnings growth rates; Nvidia trading at 27x earnings while expected to grow 70% annually is relatively low, and open-source model proliferation across all companies will drive broad productivity and earnings gains - not just hyperscaler profits.
Peterffy built a phantom (play-money) prediction market product a decade ago but was warned by consultants that launching it would jeopardize the company's banking license application, so Kalshi and Polymarket launched real-money versions instead; he later applied for and received CFTC licensing to launch Forecast Trader in 2024.
In the long term, prediction markets will generate the majority of Interactive Brokers' earnings as liquidity deepens and professional investors use them to hedge macro risks tied to economic, regional, and political outcomes.
Leverage concentration in opaque over-the-counter derivatives where banks have interconnected counterparty contracts; when one counterparty becomes distressed, the complex web creates contagion risk, whereas Interactive Brokers mitigates this by only clearing exchange-traded, centrally-cleared products.
Our reviewer’s read on each dimension, with quotes from the episode.
The episode contains several substantive business and market insights - particularly on Interactive Brokers' business model, AI's limitations for forecasting, prediction markets as a growth driver, and systemic leverage risk - but is padded with softball questions, repetitive sponsor reads, and extended tangents on political predictions and land purchases that don't add operational value for B2B operators.
the more investors know about the ins and outs of the mechanics of investing, the more people realize that in order to maximize their returns, it is not enough to pick the right investment strategy, but they also must pick the right platform to implement it
the current AI models is that the weights are all frozen...they are not enabling new information to come in and change any of the weights...these systems cannot learn
Peterffy articulates some genuine contrarian positions (skepticism of AI for securities analysis, the case for prediction markets over polls, his specific critique of hyperscaler capex strategy), but much of the framing relies on familiar fintech narratives about the professional trader edge and recycled macro takes on inflation and the Fed.
AI in the near future is going to impact much about securities analysis to a great extent because even though it's very, very good at bringing all the facts together...it's not really good at projecting events forward
these companies of course will have to write down much of the compute that they bought
Thomas Peterffy is a genuine operator of exceptional caliber: founder and 75% owner of a $160B market cap company, proven builder who navigated three decades of technology shifts, and someone with substantial skin in the game. His views carry legitimate weight given his scale and demonstrated execution track record.
founder of Interactive Brokers in 1978 and built it to sit at a market cap of $160 billion today
Shares have risen over 40% per annum for the last five years
Peterffy provides concrete details on IBKR's business model (lending at 0.5% over prime, paying 0.5% under fed funds), Nvidia's valuation (27x earnings with 70% growth expectations), and specific product timelines (prediction markets launched 2024, expanded 2025), but often retreats to abstraction on macro themes, leverage levels, and political predictions without supporting data.
we lend money half over prime and we pay not prime, I mean fed funds, and we pay interest half under Fed funds
Nvidia, 27 times earnings, and they stated expectations of increasing earnings by 70%
Frost asks reasonable setup questions but rarely pushes back or probe deeper. He accepts Peterffy's dismissals of leverage risk and AI security threats without follow-up, allows vague answers on valuation concerns to stand unchallenged, and lets the land-purchase rationale (driven by 20% probability of US socialism) go largely unexplored. The tone is deferential rather than inquisitive.
And you don't think it's going to, I guess, increase the chance of either a recession in the underlying economy or a big correction in the stock market?
Do you think that that also applies to the Kalshis of this world or given that the higher volume for them is in areas like sports
Computed from the transcript - who did the talking, and the words that came up most.
Thomas Peterffy is worth well over $100bn, making him one of the 20 wealthiest people in the world. He is a markets titan and the founder of Interactive Brokers, and joins Wilf on this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast. He breaks down how Interactive Brokers has grown both earnings and its share price by around 40% per year over the past five years, driven by its focus on building the products its customers want. He explains why he remains calm about the rise in bond yields, believes the Fed will hike rates, and disagrees with that decision. Peterffy is optimistic about AI, arguing that fears of a Hindenburg moment are overstated and that AI will overwhelmingly boost the economy and stock market. He points to companies such as Nvidia, which he believes are “cheap” when their earnings growth is taken into account. Wilf and Thomas also discuss prediction markets at length. Peterffy boldly predicts that they will eventually account for the majority of Interactive Brokers’ earnings, explaining the decade-long thinking behind his forecast, including his attempt to buy Kalshi five years ago.
Transcribed and scored by The B2B Podcast Index.
Speaker A: I think if you, uh, think about how you want to invest your assets for your heirs to have something down the road, if these things happen that I'm worried about, then I think land is the life, equal asset. I think the Fed will probably raise rates, although, as I said, I'm not, I would not be in favor of that. But they will have to do it just to demonstrate that they are independent. Slowing down, I mean, it's a very difficult thing because China is not going to slow down. So, uh, you know, this is basically, uh, a competition between the two hemispheres and it's not. I'm not in favor of slowing down. I would like us to win.
Speaker B: Welcome to the Master Investor Podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, where we celebrate and learn from the success of the greatest investors, business leaders and politicians in the world, giving you, our, uh, listeners, an edge. The Master Investor Podcast is sponsored by Elseg Interactive Brokers, the World Gold Council and BNY Investments. Please do remember the views expressed in this podcast are for general information purposes only. Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice or a personal recommendation. More on that in the show notes. My guest today is a titan of markets, a digital trading pioneer who founded interactive brokers in 1978 and built, built it to sit at a market cap of $160 billion today. The performance in recent years in particular has been astonishing. Shares have risen over 40% per annum for the last five years. Thomas still owns, uh, 75% of the company and, uh, therefore is worth over $100 billion himself. IBKR Interactive Brokers is one of the four sponsors of this podcast. Uh, I'm proud to say I am delighted to welcome back the chairman of Interactive Brokers, Thomas Petafi. Thomas, great to see you.
Speaker A: Thank you, Wilfred. Great to see you too.
Speaker B: Um, and I should point people because I was tempted because it's been a year, year and a half since you last joined the podcast to recap your life story because it is so fascinating. Um, but rather than doing a repeat episode, I would point people back to our first conversation, uh, just over a year ago. For that and talk Thomas. I wanted to just start on a theme that has continued since then, and that is the amazing share price, uh, performance, which comes from an amazing underlying earnings performance. 40% per year earnings growth from 2022. What's driven that?
Speaker A: Well, it's basically, uh, what IBKR is all about. So when we started the brokerage business some 33 years ago, we did that with the idea of providing a platform to floor traders on the various equities and options and commodities exchanges to continue their business as the floors go electronic. Uh, now we were clearly way too early, uh, because, uh, the trading floors did not go electronic, uh, for another 10 years. Uh, conversions happened between the year 2000 and 2010. And that was the time when we began onboarding our first target customers. So these were people with capital from half a million to $5 million. And they conducted a regular daily trading business. So that our platform had to be very different than any other brokerage platform at the time, which were basically giving their customers order tickets to fill out. Uh, we had to provide a system for them, for our customers to manage several limit orders at the same time on different products. We had to enable them to do arbitrage and pair trading and shorting and all goes that professional traders regularly, uh, used to do. Uh, we had to obviously provide the best possible execution prices, low financing rates, high rates of temporarily available on temporary, uh, available cash interest on short proceeds, and all the features that these traders needed to make a regular income on a daily basis. As this business started to take off, we made our platform available to everybody else who could find us on the Internet. And that included larger professional investors and hedge funds with substantially greater levels of capital and retail clients with much less capital. But the focus remained, uh, on the professional trader. Uh, and that is still our target client today. And they are the ones whose evolving needs we try to satisfy as we serve them in more and more countries around the world. Uh, so that is the reason we can say that the more investors know about the ins and outs of the mechanics of investing, the more, uh, people, um, um, uh, the more people realize that in order to maximize their returns, it is not enough to, uh, pick the right investment strategy, but they also must pick the right platform to implement it. That is what drives our growth.
Speaker B: Um, I wanted to talk Thomas, about two big themes, interest rates and AI over the next sort of section, uh, of the conversation. First on interest rates. Because clearly a big reason why your earnings have been so strong in the last four or five years is because your net interest income has risen as interest rates came off the floor for the first time in a decade. Um, and clearly the market's grappling now with the prospect of whether rates are going to go higher still possibly tomorrow, uh, with Kevin Walsh hosting a Fed
Speaker A: meeting for us, it's not so much about how high interest rates go because we basically, uh, we lend money half over prime and we pay, um, not prime, I mean fed funds, and we pay interest half under Fed funds. So we don't care if fed funds are 5% or 10% or 20% or 1%. Um, um, but whether the Fed, uh, should raise interest rates tomorrow is, is a difficult question because in my mind inflation is driven by oil prices, uh, and that high oil prices are caused by the war. So stifling Iran's ability, um, to attack the Strait of Hormuz is, is much more important, uh, to reduce inflation than to raise interest rates. And the bond markets call for raising the rates, but uh, I'm unsure how important that is. It may be better to run a hotter economy while we are still fighting the war so that we can easier cope with unfavorable economic fallouts, uh, when the war is open, uh, when the war is over, we can see if uh, uh, lower oil prices immediately result in lower inflation or if we must raise rates at ah, that time. Right.
Speaker B: Clearly the longer end of the bond market at the moment is really flashing red. Um, 5% on the 10 year just crossed, uh, higher still for the 30 year. And it's a global issue. How concerned are you about that? And does that trump the economic argument you're making? Does the Fed need to try and calm the bond market with a hike?
Speaker A: Well, I think the Fed will probably raise rates, although as I said, I would not be in favor of that. But they will have to do it just to demonstrate that they are independent.
Speaker B: Are you worried about the bond market at the moment, the pace of increase in yields?
Speaker A: No, I'm not. No, I'm not really. I, uh, mean, you know, increasing it's fine rates, you know, they can go anywhere. I mean, it's okay from my point of view.
Speaker B: And you don't think it's going to, I guess, increase the chance of either a recession in the underlying economy or a big correction in the stock market?
Speaker A: Well, if they rise very, very sharply, suddenly, then that could cause uh, all kinds of problems. But as long as it's gradually going up as it is currently, it's okay with me.
Speaker B: And the last few weeks since say like August, you think it is still gradual, the increase in yields?
Speaker A: Uh, that's what I think, yeah.
Speaker B: This episode is sponsored by the World Gold Council, the global experts on gold. They champion gold as a trusted strategic asset, provided market leading research to help investors understand gold's role and modernize how gold is owned, traded and used. Developing industry standards and market infrastructure. Learn more@goldhub.com in terms of the other kind of big exposure, uh, of course to your very strong earnings growth, the Last four or five years, I think it's fair to say it's been a strong equity market, um, which is obviously something that boosts the overall momentum of your business. Do you fear about again the scale to which a single theme behind the equity markets AI, uh is going to be hard to continue for the next five years in the same way as it has the last five years.
Speaker A: So I wouldn't worry about that either because um, even though valuations are very high, uh, from a historical perspective, uh, if you look at the um, rates at which earnings are growing, uh, they are not high. As a matter of fact they may be even too low. So if you look at a company like Nvidia, uh, 27 times earnings, uh, and they stated expectations of increasing earnings by 70% uh, that is relatively uh, low valuation and similar uh, situation uh to a lesser extent is what we can expect everywhere else as AI permeates the economy. So it's not necessarily a, ah, focus on AI only it's the use of AI with all other companies that will really drastically increase uh, productivity and earnings. And even if uh, the frontier models would stop uh, progressing at this moment, there are so many open source models all over the place and adapting them by all the other companies will result in huge increases in earnings and productivity. So I'm basically very optimistic.
Speaker B: And what about the big AI directly related companies, the hyperscalers and the like and the scale of investment they made in recent years? Tomas, you're quite famous, uh, in the business which Wall street has always celebrated for not wanting to waste money to being very uh, careful with the money you invest and making sure the return on capital is attractive. Do you think they've been foolhardy with some of their investments?
Speaker A: Well, I mean, you know it's, it's an interesting situation because you know their idea is that uh, there be only one or two of them who will, who will basically prevail. Right? But in order to be among the one or two winners, uh, they basically have to buy all the compute capacity they can. So at this point none of them are willing to give up on, on, on not being number one. Right. So they have to keep buying uh, compute and, and that eventually will, will contract the price of compute. So basically is going to benefit tremendously everybody else. And, and these companies of course will have to write down much of the compute that they bought.
Speaker B: And when you see the actions of the last week or so and the CEOs of these companies coming out to call for regulation, um, what's your assessment of that as someone that's built and sit atop a big business, is it understandable to you to say we want to slow down, we want to welcome regulation? Do you think that's a, a kind
Speaker A: of regulation is one thing, but slowing down, I mean it's, it's a very difficult thing because China is not going to slow down. So uh, you know this, this is basically a, a, a competition between the two hemispheres. And, and it's not, I, I'm not in favor of slowing down. I would like us to win.
Speaker B: And similarly, what about the risk of a sort of Hindenburg moment as some people are referring it to? And if there was something worse than the hugging face hack that appeared?
Speaker A: I don't really believe in that. I mean, you know, hacks, uh, they've been hacking systems for a very, very long time and uh, it hasn't really caused substantial problems.
Speaker B: And you're a very tech forward business. Obviously you've been massively ahead of the curve, uh, on all forms of uh, trading. Do you worry about, I presume, not at your business, but at a financial hacker in the financial system somewhere, or do you in fact think that companies like yourself are investing heavily in this area and well prepared for those threats?
Speaker A: Of course, we're continuously worrying about it and try to take all the steps that we must take to make sure that we are not going to be hacked. But I mean you can never be 100% sure that that's not going to happen. You have to make sure that even if you do get hacked, it's not going to cause too much damage before you discover it.
Speaker B: This episode is brought to you by Elseg, the leading global financial markets infrastructure data and analytics provider. To learn more about how Elseg connects businesses, investors and markets worldwide, visit elseg.com let's talk about prediction markets. Thomas, this is something that I know you've been passionate about, but I have to say, uh, I'd underprice the scale of uh, how long and how passionate you've been about it. You launched your prediction markets product, um, Forecast Trader in 2024. You significantly increased the offering in 2025. Um, but as I said, this was something you thought about over a decade ago and actually built a phantom prediction markets product, uh, 10 years ago.
Speaker A: That's right, we did that. And uh, then we were warned that if we were really bringing it out, uh, and offered it to users that we were at that time, um, uh, going where we were working on applying for a banking license. And the consultants we used, they learned about our prediction market efforts and they warned us that if we go forward with it we will never get a banking license. So we actually uh, came out with it, but we came up with it with phantom money so that it wasn't real, but it was real enough for the guys at Kochi and Polymarket to see it. And they said wait, that's a great idea. And they came out uh, with it for real money. Uh, so um, that's what happened. And uh, so now they are way ahead of us of course.
Speaker B: And when Kalshi came out you tried to buy them.
Speaker A: That's right. Because you see they went to the CFTC and they got licensed. And I said what a stupid thing it is. I didn't think about doing that. And so I thought that well, uh, to get licensed by the CFTC would take about two and a half or three years. So I thought I'd rather buy them than do it myself. And I tried to buy them but they wouldn't entertain an offer. So um, we went to apply for our own license and we got it. But so they are, they are basically uh, you know, most of the volume that they do is. They are doing it in sports. They are not. We were never interested in sports. That, that wasn't our idea about prediction markets. Prediction markets to us was all about what it, how it inter dig should interdigitate with uh, equity and commodities trading.
Speaker B: Um, and so your focus as you're kind of alluding to on financial markets and where prediction markets can fill a gap for, for professional investors.
Speaker A: All right, so in our view, um, the economy is the major determining factor for the stock market. Right? And so the stock market and the commodity markets are only concerned with prices. And that doesn't answer all the questions about the future prices by themselves they are a very limited uh, niche. So you have to understand, everybody understands that individual companies and individual commodities exist within a larger economy and regional economies exist within the uh, uh, uh, country economy and country economies. And this exists within the global economy. And the global economy is functioning within uh, uh, social and climate environment. And all those things are basically determining how individual companies uh, can uh, and do progress. So, so these questions I think are very, very important from a point of view of an investor. So when you are uh, looking uh, at uh, a stock and trying to figure out where that company is going, I think you have to look at the entire environment and have an idea uh, as to what that environment is going to look like in the future for that company in order to evaluate where that company can Possibly go.
Speaker B: How far away do you think we are, Thomas, from prediction markets being deep enough and liquid enough to genuinely represent overall consensus? I mean, I presume for a market like will there be a rate hike tomorrow? That's already. The genuine consensus. Represents the genuine consensus. But what about questions? I know you offer markets on weather, for example, because it's relevant to commodities traders. Uh, do you feel like they're deep enough and liquid enough to represent, uh, genuine consensus yet?
Speaker A: Not as of yet. But I think in the coming years it is going to become more and more liquid, uh, more and more, uh, uh, there are more and more economic interests that are dependent on these questions. And who are exposed to these, uh, questions. And who would uh, do better if they could hedge. And therefore they will, uh, pay more and more attention to these markets in the coming years. And I will participate. And these markets are going to become huge in my point, in my view.
Speaker B: Will it mean experts become kind of irrelevant?
Speaker A: But no, they will not be irrelevant because I think they will. Instead of, um, selling their expertise to whoever they are selling it today, they will just participate in the prediction markets and express their opinion that way. Because it's much more efficient than they should take their own positions based on what they think. And the prediction markets will tell the world what the experts think.
Speaker B: I guess it's really interesting. I guess we'll see who the accurate experts are. They'll uh, put the money where the mouth is. Perhaps I'm interested in, in. In how you run this business part of the business. If it's not yet deep and liquid, does that mean you are more exposed at the moment to the positions that people are taking because you can't actively offset your positions?
Speaker A: Yes. Well, to the extent that, that we have to make a market, yes, we are more exposed. And, and it's not. Not a, uh, very attractive, uh, business at the moment. But I think it will take off.
Speaker B: And do you think that that also applies to the Kalshis of this world or given that the higher volume for them is in areas like sports. Are there deep enough and liquid enough that they are just simply making.
Speaker A: They are so focused on the sports that uh, and I make a huge amount of money on the sports bets. But the question is, of course, uh, as you know, the states are uh, up in arms against them. And uh, so it is going to be up to the supreme Court, which will, I think will be decided, uh, in the late spring, uh, of the coming year as to whether these are swaps, as the sports bets are swaps. As the Kalschief claim, or are they just bets that they should be licensed by the state to conduct these, uh, events?
Speaker B: I guess with all of that, you might be pleased that you didn't by Kalshi. And uh, even though it took longer to build, well, if we had bought
Speaker A: Kalshi, they wouldn't be doing sports.
Speaker B: Fair enough. Fair enough. I guess the final question on this is how big you think it's going to be? I mean, what portion of your earnings and revenue is this at the moment? And in 10 years, uh, even though you'll stay focused on the core markets that are relevant to professional traders and investors, how big can it be?
Speaker A: I think, uh, I don't know exactly 10 years, but in the fullness of time, it's going to be the majority of, uh, our earnings will be derived from prediction markets.
Speaker B: Wow. Really interesting. Um, I wanted to ask you on one prediction market that's live at the moment because we touched on it last time we discussed. Uh, and so just to get your take, as I know you're very plugged into the political situation. When we last spoke, you thought people were underpricing the chance of the Republicans holding, uh, both houses of Congress. Where do you sit on that at the moment?
Speaker A: Well, it's still, I mean, the odds don't look good for people, um, who are Republicans. And, uh, it certainly doesn't look good.
Speaker B: And do you think that market is deep enough yet to represent genuine consensus?
Speaker A: Uh, yes, the political markets are certainly deep enough to reflect the concern. I think they are more accurate than the polls.
Speaker B: And they're pointing to both houses flipping now.
Speaker A: Uh, well, no, they are pointing to, uh, uh, the House of Representative becoming Democratic and the Senate remaining, uh, Republican.
Speaker B: We shall see what happens. I guess it's, uh, drawing closer every day. This episode is sponsored by BNY Investments. BMY Investments is part of bmy, a, uh, global financial services company supporting investors and institutions around the world. This sponsorship does not constitute investment advice. Let's talk more broadly about your business. And I heard this in another conversation, um, that you gave to, uh, a Bloomberg podcast. And just what the single biggest risk to your business is that keeps you up at night that you think about every day that you have to focus on. And you said that that was leverage. How, how often are you thinking about that leverage and the risk it poses to your business?
Speaker A: Well, it's not as much leverage. At, uh, Interactive Brokers, we are very automated in and we continuously, uh, our systems are continuously evaluating all the leverage of our customers. And we immediately liquidate whenever there is any uh, margin uh violation. But uh, it's generally the leverage in the entire system that worries me because uh, the fact is that if other entities begin to have problems it permeates through the markets and then everybody ends up with a problem.
Speaker B: And where's your level of concern towards uh, leveraging the system as a whole at the moment?
Speaker A: The margin loans that are out there are very large. But uh, so uh, the fact of the matter is that we don't even know. Part of the problem is that we don't know what's out there. Right. Because there is not really a central place where it all comes together. And the problem is that many of these uh, of course m, many of the banks um, are largely exposed to over the counter products. And uh, we are not, we don't do over the counter. We all interactive brokers only those exchange stated products uh, that are cleared through clearing houses. But so the problem always comes from the over the counter products where you have the bank has one contract with one uh counterparty and the hedge with another counterparty. And then when one of the counterparties becomes shaky they sort of have trouble figuring out uh, what to do. It's a spaghetti, uh, everybody's um, you know, who has credit where. So that's where uh usually the problem is.
Speaker B: And again you know these problems get triggered when prices adjust very quickly and someone's been caught offside. And not to labor the point, but the rise in yields we've seen whether it's in the US or Japan or the UK and the adjustments in some currencies like the yen. You don't think those moves have been big enough, enough of a surprise to somebody that, that it might catch people offside?
Speaker A: Well there's always a little bit of worry but I, so I, I don't want to overstate this. I, I, I, you know I, I'm not really worried about it at this time that I, I don't think about it much.
Speaker B: Um, what about the threat AI poses to your business? Because you guys have always been the leader on the technology side of a brokerage offering great uh, functionality, uh attracting as you said those professional traders. Is that going to be easier to replicate uh by your rivals going forward in the age of AI Will it also threaten uh, your business?
Speaker A: M I don't think so. We are uh, Interactive Brokers has made AI available. All the AI, all the major AI, uh models are available to our customers and they can um, interface with them and connect it to their portfolios and they can use AI to the best of uh, their abilities, uh via our platform. So this is, this is a positive for us uh rather than a negative. Uh so I, I uh, there is no our, it's, it's a benefit to our customers and it's, it's good, it's good for our business. Uh, I'm not worried about AI from that point of view. I also uh, do not think that that AI in the near future is going to um, impact much about uh, impact uh securities analysis, uh to a great extent because even though it's very, very good at uh, bringing all the facts together and sorting them out, but it's not really good at projecting events forward. So the problem is with the current AI models is that the weights are all frozen. Uh, uh, they are determined at the time of training and then they are frozen and they cannot be updated uh one at a time because the entire uh, uh vector space, if you start changing something it becomes unstable. So uh, they are not uh, enabling new information to come in and uh, change any of the weights. Uh, so new information, new has to be accounted for, uh and it cannot. So basically these systems cannot learn. And that would be uh, in my view, uh, absolutely essential for forecasting earnings uh and how companies will do in the future. Uh, the current AI systems I don't think are applicable to that. And that of course brings me back to the prediction markets. They are much more important uh for uh, projecting earnings forward than the AI systems.
Speaker B: Yeah, but I guess it'll be interesting in years to come if AI can also use what the prediction markets are suggesting, GDP growth will be or recession chances in and factor that into their forecasts. Um, I wanted to touch on your client base. We've been speaking throughout about how you tilt towards the professional client in terms of the big accounts, towards the hedge fund clients who are doing much more uh, intensive trading and complicated trading at the same time. You're now pursuing a new bank trust charter. Not full banking license but a ah, trust charter. What's the thinking behind that? Is that to allow you to pursue the less sexy clients, the slightly.
Speaker A: So the Ben Charter is all about uh being able to custody uh mutual funds and ETFs because uh, you have to be um, a uh, bank uh to be able to custody the assets of ETF issuers and mutual fund uh, managers.
Speaker B: And is that going to be a more, I guess the question I was trying to get to. Is that going to be a slightly more boring part of your business going forward?
Speaker A: Well, it's not so Boring, because it, uh, has great repercussions for our ability to lend, uh, shares to customers who need them. Because much of our interest income comes from, um, uh, short, uh, people who are, who are, uh, shorting stocks, uh, for whatever reason they do that and, uh, that is substantially important for our performance.
Speaker B: And the big custodians of this world, the Northern Trusts, the State Streets, the JP Morgans, what can you offer that they can't offer? What's your pitch to would be mutual funds or ETFs.
Speaker A: We offer everything that they offer because, as a matter of fact, we do it better because, for example, our short inventory is available, uh, to see online for our customers. And they can not only see what we have, but also our lending rates they can see online. So, uh, now many people, uh, you know, look, and then they call the bank and they say, how about. Do you mean it's 3%? I can get it at Interactive Brokers. Or, ah, 2%. The bank says, okay, it's yours at 2%. But, uh, uh, many of them. Then of course, give us some business for that.
Speaker B: Let's talk about your valuation. Um, the share price performance has been fantastic. It's been built, as I touched on, on roughly 40% underlying earnings growth per annum for five years. Um, but also five years ago, the valuation multiple was much lower. It was sort of 12 times PE to 30 times or so today. Does that ever concern you? That you're. Although the underlying fundamentals are looking great, that it's unlikely the market will increase your valuation going forward?
Speaker A: Or.
Speaker B: Or is it not really something you focus on?
Speaker A: Well, uh, I. To tell you, frankly, I don't think about the stock much. I, I think about the business. I think about, you know, what kind of new things we can come up with and provide to our customers and how can we grow the business because the stock price, you know, there's nothing I can do about it. And the idea is to have, uh, uh, a wonderful experience for our customers and to make them as profitable as we possibly can. That, that is our focus.
Speaker B: Well, and one leads to the other. So I think that sounds like a very sensible approach. Thomas, I, um, wanted to talk, if I could, about the assets you've diversified into. Clearly, as I mentioned at the top, you still own a huge amount of the company, which accounts for the vast majority of your over $100 billion wealth. That makes you the top 20 richest people in the world. But you've also, and there's been quite a lot of coverage about this in the assets you have Diversified into. You've bought a lot of land. Right. Uh, can you talk to us about the rationale for that?
Speaker A: Yeah. So, as you know, I have grown up in communist Hungary, and my family used to own a lot of land before communism came in. And then, of course, they took it away from us. They took everything away. They took, uh, um, uh, obviously all your real estate and your land and your companies and your businesses. But, uh, if you look back, what happened was they basically the only thing they could return after, uh, 45 years of, of uh, destroying your property, basically the only thing they couldn't destroy and could return were the lands. Those lands that were not, uh, uh, open to building upon and doing things with. So basically agricultural land, land that was out in the country that they couldn't basically ruin and so that was returned. So I think that the same thing may happen in America. And, uh, that is the reason that I am buying land. So that after the democratic socialists take everything over and they ruin all the stuff, they will eventually find out that it doesn't work and they will have to go back to, uh, protecting people's private property and return the assets they can return. And the only assets they will be able to return will be the raw land.
Speaker B: Wow. And what chance do you put, uh, on the US Going down that path where essentially capitalism gets eradicated, at least temporarily?
Speaker A: Well, we see that happening. I mean, we see the mandamis of the world uh, taking power. Right. And it looks like more and more of these kinds of people will come into power this time around. And so I think currently chances I would put them at 20%.
Speaker B: And I mean, if that's the case, land is, I guess, quite an expensive way to protect against that for most people. Uh, would gold be an alternative?
Speaker A: No, because gold you cannot carry with you. And you know, they will immediately say that, uh, ownership of gold is illegal and you have to submit it to, to whatever gold you have to ever to take it to your local, whatever Communist party headquarters.
Speaker B: I'm really struck by this being the rationale for you earning so much land, Thomas, because the reason I wanted to ask about it was actually your outlook. If it implied that your outlook is for a decade or multiple decade of elevated inflation going forward. I thought that was going to be the reason, but. But it's much more significant a factor than that.
Speaker A: Yeah. No, so I think if you think, uh, about how you want to invest your assets for your heirs to have something, uh, if you. Down the road, if, uh, these things happen that I'm worried about, Then I think land is the logical, logical asset.
Speaker B: Wow. Well, that's a really fascinating note as we round things up. Thomas, I wanted to end just by asking you on your overriding piece of advice for your listeners. And, uh, what is it?
Speaker A: Well, my, uh, advice is always to have a plan and to have you have your plan always open to change when new information comes in. But, uh, you always have to have a plan and you always have to work on it, and you have to know every morning you get up, you have to know what you are supposed to do that day, and you have to consult your plan if you're temporarily confused. And, uh, right now, I would suggest that people, uh, um, try to learn as much about AI as they possibly can and figure out how to use it to their best benefits. Because that's the song of the future.
Speaker B: Tomas, it's been an absolute pleasure once again, catching up with you. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Master Investor Podcast.
Speaker A: Thank you very much for your privilege.
Speaker B: Next week we'll be joined by Ed Conway, the data and economics editor at Sky News, my friend and colleague who has a new book out as well, Trade World. Lots to discuss with him. Uh, please do hit follow or subscribe to make sure you receive that particular episode. For now, our thanks again to Thomas Peterfi. The Master Investor Podcast is sponsored by Elseg Interactive Brokers, the World Gold Council, and BNY Investments. Please do remember, the views expressed in this podcast are for general information purposes only. Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice, or a personal recommendation. More on that in the show Notes. This podcast is produced by Paradine Productions and Master Investor, uh, Ltd. In association with Birdline Media. If you've enjoyed the show, please do subscribe on YouTube or click follow on your podcast platform, and you'll be automatically notified each time a new episode drops.
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