NextWave Private Equity · 2025-07-30 · 8 min
Key moments - from our scoring
Substance score
46 / 100
Five dimensions, 20 points each
The EY PE Pulse mid-year report reveals that private equity has demonstrated unexpected durability through Q2 2025 despite significant macro and geopolitical headwinds. Global M&A reached just over $2 trillion (up 30% year-over-year), with PE firms driving approximately one-third of that activity - up from a quarter the prior year. Large deals have dominated, with transactions above $10 billion representing 27% of PE deployment (up from 10% last year) across sectors including technology, transportation, energy, infrastructure, and financial services. PE firms report their risk tolerance at 6-7 out of 10 baseline levels, substantiated by deal activity growth of 17% and value growth exceeding 40%. The podcast examines tariff impact management, where 60% of investors now have clear understanding of portfolio implications but 76% focus on second-order effects like inflation and consumer spending rather than immediate impacts. Exit activity has accelerated, driven by 26% growth in strategic acquirer participation and doubled deal values, with 40% of sellers willing to accept 5-10% haircuts on long-held assets - a flexibility absent a year prior. Fundraising emerges as the top concern, with only $223 billion raised in the first half of 2025, tracking toward a 20% annual decline from historical $600-700 billion ranges.
Global M&A reached just over $2 trillion in the first half of 2025, up 30% by value versus the same period last year.
PE firms represented just under one-third of overall M&A activity in the first half of 2025, up from approximately one-quarter in the first half of 2024.
In the EY survey, 60% of PE investors reported having a good understanding of tariff impacts across their portfolio, while 40% said they're still working on that analysis.
40% of firms surveyed are willing to accept a 5-10% haircut on original underwriting, and another 24% would accept an even greater 10-20% discount.
With $223 billion raised in the first half of 2025, current trends suggest approximately a 20% annual decline from historical $600-700 billion fundraising levels.
Our reviewer’s read on each dimension, with quotes from the episode.
The episode delivers a mix of data-backed observations and some useful framing (e.g., 'signal vs. noise' on tariffs, second-order effects, the lag between exits and fundraising recovery). However, much of the content is surface-level market commentary without actionable depth - discussing tariff concerns and exit trends without explaining *why* PE should act differently or what specific operational levers exist. The host provides structure but little genuine insight that would change how a PE operator thinks.
just over $2 trillion in global MA deals so far this year. That's up 30% by value versus a year ago.
60% of investors said they have a pretty good understanding right now of what the tariff impacts are going to be
The episode rehashes widely circulated PE macro themes: tariff anxiety, exit challenges, fundraising headwinds, and portfolio clearing. The framing of 'separating signal from noise' and second-order effects on inflation/consumer spending is sensible but not novel. No contrarian takes, first-principles arguments, or counterintuitive insights - just standard quarterly market review language heard across dozens of industry podcasts.
we saw this mad scramble to go out and really understand the impact
everybody's out there trying to separate out the signal from the noise
Pete Whitty is identified only as 'Global Insights lead for PE at EY' - a staff economist or analyst role, not an operating partner, GP, or founder with hands-on deal-making experience. He is reporting institutional findings from surveys rather than sharing personal operational expertise. For a PE audience seeking actionable intelligence, a practicing GP or seasoned portfolio operator would carry far more weight than an advisory firm's aggregated data compiler.
My name is Pete Whitty and I'm the Global Insights lead for PE here at ey
as part of our regular survey of private equity GPs, we went out and we asked them
The episode provides solid macro data: $2T in global M&A (+30% YoY), PE deals up 17%, deals >$10B at 27% of deployment (+from 10%), tariff analysis 60/40 split, 76% focused on second-order effects, exit haircut willingness (40% at 5-10%, 24% at 10-20%), fundraising on track for ~20% decline, $223B raised H1. However, specificity is limited to aggregate survey findings and market-level metrics. No named deals, portfolio examples, or company-specific case studies; no breakdown by sector beyond brief mention of 'transportation, energy, infrastructure, financial services.'
just over $2 trillion in global MA deals so far this year. That's up 30% by value
deals above $10 billion have accounted for 27% of PE deployment so far this year. That's up from about 10% last year
This is a monologue, not a conversation. Speaker B delivers a prepared quarterly briefing with zero back-and-forth, no challenging follow-ups, no disagreement, and no spontaneous exploration of ideas. The host asks no questions, plays no active role, and the format is a one-way data dump with smooth transitions between sections. There is no evidence of conversational friction, probing curiosity, or willingness to push on claims - it reads as a polished, scripted EY product announcement.
My name is Pete Whitty and I'm, um, the Global Insights lead for PE here at ey and over the next few minutes we'll talk through some of the key things
That's it for this quarter's podcast. Thanks as always for joining. We'll be back next quarter
Computed from the transcript - who did the talking, and the words that came up most.
In the first half of 2025, private equity exits reached their highest levels in three years. Corporate acquirers became active buyers, and firms showed increased flexibility on valuations to facilitate the sale of long-held assets. Despite ongoing market volatility, global M&A activity rose by 30%, with private equity contributing significantly. Although fundraising challenges exist, many investors remain optimistic and expect increased deployment activity in the coming months. Firms are prioritizing exit readiness and operational enhancements across various sectors, reflecting a proactive approach in a dynamic private equity landscape. Explore more at
Transcribed and scored by The B2B Podcast Index.
Speaker A: The Global PE Pulse Podcast from EY
Speaker B: welcome to the mid year edition of the EY PE Pulse Podcast. My name is Pete Whitty and I'm, um, the Global Insights lead for PE here at ey and over the next few minutes we'll talk through some of the key things that we're seeing right now in the private equity space. That includes today's deal environment, the past quarter's themes and areas of focus, as well as our outlook for the next few months. Thanks so much as always for joining and let's get right into it.
Speaker A: This quarter's deals, environment, acquisitions, exits and financing.
Speaker B: If I had to pick a theme for this quarter, I guess I'd say resilience and to a pretty surprising degree, obviously. When we kicked off the second quarter of this year, we were entering a period of some of the most significant geopolitical and macro disruption that we had seen in a really long time. And while we certainly seeing evidence of that disruption in terms of some deals getting pulled or delayed, overall private equity activity and in fact the M and A markets more broadly have shown a pretty surprising degree of durability in light of all the uncertainty that's out there. Overall, we've seen just over $2 trillion in global MA deals so far this year. That's up 30% by value versus a year ago. And private equity has been a really active contributor to that. So an interesting data point. So not this quarter, but last quarter. Right. So Q1 as part of our regular survey of private equity GPs, we went out and we asked them, on a scale of 1 to 10, what do you feel like your firm's risk tolerance is right now relative to your typical baseline? And most said that they were between a six and a seven. Now, I'll admit I was a little bit skeptical, but now we have the evidence of the numbers insofar as how a lot of private equity shops are leaning into some of the opportunities opportunities that are out there. Key firms have represented just under a third of overall M and A activity in the first half of this year. That's up from about a quarter in the first half of last year. And the number of PE deals grew 17% in the first half of this year versus a year ago. A lot of that has been driven by large deals in particular. So the value of deals grew more than 40% in the first half. And it's not just tech. We've seen deals announced across a wide range of spaces, including transportation, energy, infrastructure, financial services. In fact, deals above $10 billion have accounted for 27% of PE deployment so far this year. That's up from about 10% last year.
Speaker A: This quarter's key market themes and fund prior.
Speaker B: So let's talk about a couple of things that are top of mind for private equity right now. The first is tariffs, right? And how folks are reacting to that. You know, when tariffs were first announced, we saw this mad scramble to go out and really understand the impact and really get your arms around what does it mean for supply chains and input costs, manufacturing footprints, your pricing structures and so on down the line. Now, for a lot of PEs, the bulk of that work has been done. So in our survey, 60% of investors said they have a pretty good understanding right now of, uh, what the tariff impacts are going to be across the portfolio. 40%. So a significant minority said that they're still working on it. So whatever camp you're in, you've got company there. What's interesting though is that less than a quarter said that when they think about the impact of tariffs, that their primary concern is the immediate first order impacts on the portfolio. The strong majority, 76%, say that they're more worried and they're watching more closely. The second order impacts. Right. So what's going to happen with inflation, interest rates, the impact on consumer and business spending habits. So there's this process right now where everybody's out there trying to separate out the signal from the noise and just reduce some of that lack of clarity in order to be able to go out and do deals and manage businesses with more confidence. Now the other thing that folks are focused on right now is of course, exits. And despite the volatile environment, firms did take advantage of the open windows that we did have in the first half of the year to seize on some of these opportunities to turn that strategic value creation into realized returns, which is really welcome news. Part of that is coming from increased demand from corporates. In the first half of the year, the number of sales strategic acquirers grew by 26% and even more significantly, the value of those deals more than doubled. But at the same time, I think we're also seeing an increasing supply of assets that are coming to market driven by, you know, just this recognition that firms need to clear out some of these portfolios in order to make way for assets that are going to be more productive. So one of the things that we asked folks in the survey this quarter was if you could sell some of these long held assets tomorrow, how much of a haircut relative to your original underwriting would you be willing to accept? 40% said that they'd be willing to take a 5 to 10% haircut, and another 24% said they'd accept an even greater discount in the 10 to 20% range. So I think we're starting to see some increasing flexibility on the part of sellers, which wasn't necessarily XD in at this time last year, but it's starting to unlock some more of these deals.
Speaker A: Outlook for the next six to 12 months um,
Speaker B: Why is that uptick in exits important? Because for most of the last few years, you know, fundraising has been pretty resilient despite the downturn in deals and exits globally. It's bounced in the 6 to $700 billion range for the last four years. This year, though, is probably going to be different. We've seen about $223 billion raised over the first six months of this year. And so if those trends hold, even accounting for December closes and everything else, if those trends hold, we'll be looking at about a, uh, 20% decline. I think. LPs are just generally out of Runway, and a lot of the stopgap measures like NAV loans and GP led deals just may not be as productive as they were maybe 18 months ago. And so GPS are a lot more concerned about fundraising. When we asked dealmakers nine months ago what their top concerns for the industry were, it was one, the ability to deploy capital pace, two, the health of their existing portfolio, and three, the ability to get liquidity. Today, things have changed that number one concern fundraising. And because of that, folks are going to be watching the deals market very closely for evidence of a sustained uptick, especially with respect to exits. But because fundraising is such a lagging indicator, even if this recovery continues to build, we probably shouldn't expect a meaningful uptick there until sometime next year. That's it for this quarter's podcast. Thanks as always for joining. We'll be back next quarter with some more views.
Speaker A: The Global Pel podcast from EY back next quarter. For more on the latest market Trends, go to ey.com Pell.
Other episodes covering the same guests and topics, from across The B2B Podcast Index.
PE Pulse: key takeaways from Q2 202665 / 100PE Pulse: key takeaways from Q1 202658 / 100PE Pulse: key takeaways from Q4 202554 / 100PE Pulse: key takeaways from Q3 202558 / 100PE Pulse: key takeaways from Q1 2025
