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Index/HR/Graeme Codrington's Future of Work
Graeme Codrington's Future of Work artwork

$80 billion. Gone - ThrowForward Thursday 186

Graeme Codrington's Future of Work · 2026-04-16 · 5 min

0:00--:--

Key moments - from our scoring

Substance score

16 / 100

Five dimensions, 20 points each

Insight Density3 / 20
Originality5 / 20
Guest Caliber1 / 20
Specificity & Evidence5 / 20
Conversational Craft2 / 20

Meta's $80 billion write-off on the Metaverse represents a cautionary tale about technology hype and misaligned product vision. The episode revisits Throw Forward Thursday's April 2022 prediction that the Metaverse would fail, vindicated when Meta announced the shutdown in April 2026. Graeme Codrington critiques the fundamental flaw in Zuckerberg's vision: recreating the worst aspects of physical offices, retail stores, and banking in virtual reality rather than imagining genuinely novel experiences. The speakers argue that while VR and AR have legitimate applications in gaming, entertainment, medical, and technical fields, forcing users into virtual replicas of soul-destroying physical spaces - corporate offices with intrusive bosses, bank branches, shopping trolleys - represents a failure of imagination. For operators and strategists, the episode offers a framework for distinguishing signal from noise in technology investment: ask whether the innovation genuinely solves a problem or merely digitizes existing pain points. The key lesson for avoiding similar $80 billion mistakes is rigorous critical thinking about hype cycles and carefully vetting who you listen to for future guidance.

Key takeaways

  • →Meta's $80 billion Metaverse investment demonstrates the danger of following technology hype without questioning whether solutions actually solve real problems.
  • →The Metaverse failed because it recreated the worst aspects of physical and remote work (offices, banks, productivity screens) rather than offering genuinely new experiences.
  • →VR and AR have real value in gaming, entertainment, medical, and engineering applications, but not in replacing everyday physical spaces.
  • →Organizations should develop critical thinking skills to distinguish between genuine innovation and hyped technology trends before committing significant resources.
  • →Be selective about whose predictions and endorsements you follow - McKinsey's Metaverse promotion proved to be misguided hype.

In this episode

  1. 1Meta's $80 billion Metaverse failure and shutdown announcement
  2. 2Historical hype and corporate investment in the Metaverse
  3. 3Throw Forward Thursday's accurate prediction from April 2022
  4. 4Critique of Metaverse design: recreating physical world constraints
  5. 5Legitimate use cases for VR and AR technology
  6. 6Separating signal from noise in technology hype

Mentioned

MetaFacebookMark ZuckerbergMcKinseyHSBCThrow Forward ThursdayTomorrow Today

Topics in this episode

McKinseyMetaMetaverseFacebookHSBCRemote workMark ZuckerbergVirtual RealityAugmented RealityTechnology hype cyclesFuture of WorkMeta MetaverseThrow Forward ThursdayVirtual offices

Questions this episode answers

Why did Meta shut down the Metaverse after spending $80 billion?

While the episode doesn't detail Meta's official reasoning, it criticizes the fundamental product vision: the Metaverse recreated the worst aspects of physical offices, retail stores, and banking rather than enabling genuinely novel experiences. Users would have no incentive to attend virtual bank branches or pretend to shop when they could be anything in a truly immersive world.

What are legitimate use cases for virtual and augmented reality according to Codrington?

VR and AR have strong applications in gaming, entertainment, medical applications, technical training, and engineering. The failure was specifically in recreating physical-world environments like offices, stores, and banks in virtual reality.

How can organizations avoid getting caught up in technology hype like the Metaverse boom?

Be careful who you listen to and develop critical thinking skills to separate signal from noise. Ask whether a technology solves a real problem or merely digitizes existing frustrations, rather than accepting hype from consultancies and corporate leaders promoting their vision.

What was wrong with HSBC's investment in virtual bank branches in the Metaverse?

Creating virtual bank branches fails to understand why VR should exist: if you can be anything and go anywhere in the Metaverse, why would users voluntarily recreate one of the most soul-destroying experiences from the physical world - visiting an actual bank branch?

What our scoring noted

Our reviewer’s read on each dimension, with quotes from the episode.

Insight Density

3 / 20

The episode is almost entirely a self-congratulatory replay of a 2022 clip, offering no new analysis of why the Metaverse failed technically, strategically, or financially. The only actionable advice is a vague warning about hype, which is a platitude.

Be careful who you listen to.
Be careful the hype you get caught up in. It's not that difficult to work out what is really going to be successful and what is just hype anyway.

Originality

5 / 20

The 2022 criticism of the Metaverse was mildly contrarian at the time, and the 'failure of imagination' framing and dragon metaphor are colorful, but by 2026 the Metaverse-is-hype take is fully obvious and the episode adds no fresh analytical layer on top of it.

If I'm going to be in the Metaverse, I want to be a Dragon.
recreating our physical world, especially physical stores, banks and offices, and putting it onto our faces in virtual reality is a failure of imagination and it's not the future.

Guest Caliber

1 / 20

There are no guests whatsoever. The episode is a solo or dual-host format replaying the hosts' own old content, with zero practitioner, operator, or expert perspective brought in.

our team at Throw Forward Thursday told you this. We're not really given to I told you. But today, all I'm going to do is replay our April 7, 2022 episode.

Specificity & Evidence

5 / 20

The $80 billion headline figure and the HSBC virtual land anecdote are real specifics, but there is no explanation of how the money was spent, what metrics signalled failure, or any named data source - just a single number and one illustrative anecdote.

That's what Facebook Meta have spent on the Metaverse in the last five years.
HSBC buying bank branches in the Metaverse.

Conversational Craft

2 / 20

There is no discernible conversation - no guest, no probing questions, and no follow-up. The episode closes with an undisguised sales pitch for the host's consultancy, undermining any pretence of substantive dialogue.

If you'd like our team to help your team to see what's real and what isn't, please make sure that you connect with us.
Well, there we go. We might not be able to predict the future, but we can in fact separate signal from noise

Conversation analysis

Computed from the transcript - who did the talking, and the words that came up most.

Share of words spoken

  • Guest55%
  • Host45%

Most-used words

metaverse11world6virtual5reality5future4team4hype4physical4sure3bank3april3forward3today3apps3hours3mark2

Episode notes

Meta lost $80 billion on the Metaverse. We called it in 2022. Here's why the same mistake is happening again - right now. In this week's ThrowForward Thursday, I revisit our April 2022 episode on the Metaverse hype cycle and what it teaches us about separating real technological change from expensive noise. With AI, spatial computing, and the "next big platform" dominating headlines, the ability to distinguish signal from hype is the most valuable skill a leader can have. What you'll learn: - Why the Metaverse failed - and what the warning signs actually were - How to identify genuine technological disruption vs. hype-driven investment - The thinking framework futurists use to stress-test tech trends - What today's equivalent of the Metaverse might be WATCH NEXT Throwforward Thursday 48: The Metaverse (full version): RESOURCES MENTIONED TomorrowToday Global: Book Graeme to speak: SUBSCRIBE for weekly ThrowForward Thursday episodes - every week, a look at the future of work, technology, and leadership. Join the newsletter: LinkedIn: What do you think is today's Metaverse?

Full transcript

5 min

Transcribed and scored by The B2B Podcast Index.

Host: How much money can you afford to lose before it hurts? Well, apparently, if you're Mark Zuckerberg, the answer is $80 billion. That's what Facebook Meta have spent on the Metaverse in the last five years. And now they're shutting it down. Uh, but five years ago they were

Guest: saying this was everything.

Host: They even changed the name of Facebook to Meta to make sure we understood how important and how valuable and how bright the Metaverse future was. Other like McKinsey got involved in hyping everything. HSBC buying bank branches in the Metaverse. And yet here we are in April 2026 and they've announced that they are shutting it down completely. $80 billion down the drain. Well, back in April of 2022, our team at Throw Forward Thursday told you this. We're not really given to I told you. But today, all I'm going to do is replay our April 7, 2022 episode. We were right. All the others were wrong. What are you doing to make sure that you protect yourself from AI and IT and Metaverse and technology hype?

Guest: Be careful who you listen to.

Host: Be careful the hype you get caught up in. It's not that difficult to work out what is really going to be successful and what is just hype anyway. The Metaverse is dead. Long live the Metaverse.

Guest: The Metaverse is rubbish. Or at least the Metaverse we're trying to be sold by retailers and our bosses at the moment is a complete failure of imagination. If we can be anything and go anywhere, why would we want to go into a store and pretend to push a ah, trolley around and take items off the shelves with our physical hands? If we could be anything and go anywhere, why would we surround ourselves with a whole lot of virtual screens and apps that will increase our productivity and make us feel like we're sitting in an office with literally our colleagues walking past our desks and our bosses able to pop in unannounced at any time? Why would we recreate the world that already exists? If I want to be surrounded by screens and productivity apps, well, I already am. I'm on the Internet. I have all the apps I need on my smartphone and my laptop. I don't need to be in some virtual or augmented reality world to make that a reality. If I'm going to be in the Metaverse, I want to be a Dragon. I want to be able to hyperspace and fly from place to place. And I don't want my boss to be able to literally melt himself into my face anytime I'm working from Home. The Metaverse, as Mark Zuckerberg imagines it, is literally taking the worst part of working from home and forcing me to live and immerse myself in that for hours, hours and hours on end. I believe HSBC has bought plots of land in some of the metaverses so that they can build virtual bank branches. Are they mad? One of the most soul destroying things any human being can do in the physical world is spend some time going to an actual bank branch. Why on earth would I do it in the Metaverse where I remind you, I would much prefer to be a dragon. Virtual reality and augmented reality are coming and they are here. And there are some great use cases in gaming and entertainment, even in the medical world and technical worlds and engineering. There's lots of things that we can do with this technology. But recreating our physical world, especially physical stores, banks and offices, and putting it onto our faces in virtual reality is a failure of imagination and it's not the future.

Host: Well, there we go. We might not be able to predict the future, but we can in fact separate signal from noise and identify what type of what's real. And there's a lot of hype in the world at the moment. If you'd like our team to help your team to see what's real and what isn't, please make sure that you connect with us. And the Tomorrow Today team will be happy to have a conversation with you and talk about how we can help you to think more clearly about the future and what's happening today. Thanks as always for joining me in the Throw Forward studio. I look forward to seeing you again next week.

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