Goldman Sachs Forecasts 10K Job Losses Per Month, H-1B Wage Reform, & Why Skilled Trades Workers Are the Most Optimistic People in the Labor Market

Episode notes

Goldman Sachs is projecting that rising oil prices could shave roughly 10,000 jobs a month from US payroll growth through the end of 2026, with unemployment expected to climb to 4.6% by Q3. Host Pete Newsome breaks down the sectors most at risk, why the energy industry won't offset those losses the way it historically has, and what this forecast means for a labor market already moving in the wrong direction. He also covers a meaningful proposed rule change from the Department of Labor that would overhaul how wages are calculated for H-1B and permanent labor certification visa programs. The current system has allowed companies to hire foreign workers at rates dramatically below market for decades, hitting entry-level American workers and recent STEM graduates hardest. Pete explains what the proposed changes would actually do and why he's cautiously hopeful the DOL will follow through. And to close on a genuinely positive note, a new Aerotek survey of more than 3,500 skilled trades professionals found that 83% would recommend their career path to the next generation, a striking contrast to the broader workforce confidence data Pete covered earlier this week.

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