Cornering The Job Market · 2026-02-18 · 13 min
The economy looks strong on paper, but hiring data tell a different story. A new analysis from Mohamed El-Erian explains why growth and employment are now moving in opposite directions, a pattern that rarely occurs outside recessions. Companies aren’t hiring because they expect AI to handle the work soon, and many are still correcting over-hiring from the post-pandemic boom. At the same time, a new MetLife study shows “job hugging” is spreading. More than half of employees are staying put not because they’re happy, but because they feel they have no safer option. Retention appears healthy, yet engagement and productivity are quietly eroding beneath the surface. Then CompTIA’s job seeker data adds another twist: millions are still searching anyway. Some are chasing opportunity, others security, and nearly half say entry-level roles are already being frozen due to AI expectations. Workers are responding by rushing to learn AI skills before the market shifts further. We may be entering a rare environment where businesses can grow without adding workers, and employees remain even as they look for the exit.
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