From Free Trade to Managed Trade: The Next Phase of USMCA

Episode notes

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast , we examine the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement at a moment of heightened political uncertainty and rising strategic tension across North America. With trilateral trade reaching roughly $1.8 trillion in the 12 months to August 2025, the stakes are high for governments, investors, and manufacturers alike as the 2026 review process unfolds. Drawing on insights from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Country Risk team, the discussion explores why North American supply chains have remained broadly resilient since the USMCA took effect, even through the pandemic and recent tariff shifts. Mexico continues to benefit from regionalization and reshoring trends, while the US is increasingly focused on trade deficits, investment screening, and the role of mainland Chinese firms using North America as a production platform. Canada, meanwhile, faces a more difficult negotiating environment, shaped by tariffs, political friction, and growing divergence with Washington on industrial policy, data rules, and trade alignment.

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