The Currency Exchange · 2026-07-10 · 32 min
Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets. They discuss: Why sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, helped by yield support, possible safe-haven flows and renewed UK equity inflows. How UK politics, fiscal rules and gilt supply could become bigger risks for sterling later in the year. Why French political risk is worth watching, even if markets are not fully pricing it yet. How Middle East tensions and oil prices are feeding into dollar positioning and broader risk sentiment. Why the dollar has stayed resilient despite crowded positioning, stronger US data and shifting Fed expectations. Why NatWest expects a slower, later dollar decline through the second half of the year. What the lack of confirmed Japanese FX intervention may reveal about official tolerance for yen weakness.
US support for the yen and China's inflation exports80 / 100No silver bullet for doves78 / 100Will the real Kevin Warsh please stand up?Oil is up and markets expect rate hikesPound outperforms, but for how long?