SunCast · 2026-06-30 · 26 min
Key moments - from our scoring
Substance score
48 / 100
Five dimensions, 20 points each
Sean Kelly, co-founder of Amperon, explains why traditional deterministic forecasting (single-point predictions) is giving way to probabilistic forecasting that provides ranges of outcomes across 51 ensemble members. This shift is driven by extreme weather becoming more frequent (one-in-100-year events every three months) and the influx of computer science and data science professionals in trading who demand algorithmic approaches over Excel-based models. Amperon's AI-powered platform operates across 48 continental US states, Alberta, Ontario, Australia, and 16 European countries, generating forecasts for electricity demand, solar, wind, and nodal pricing in ERCOT and PJM. Kelly highlights how this capability helped customers anticipate Winter Storm Fern a month in advance, enabling both traders to monetize opportunities and utilities to ensure grid reliability. The conversation reveals that the real grid bottleneck isn't generation or transmission capacity - it's the 50-100 critical hours per year when the system is stressed. Kelly argues flexibility (demand response, distributed compute, data center load shifting) offers more immediate value than building new generation or transmission infrastructure. He notes that large loads like data centers and hyperscalers can act as demand response resources, and distributed 5-20 megawatt edge computing facilities offer more practical value than singular gigawatt projects, especially when co-located with renewable assets facing curtailment.
Deterministic forecasting provides a single answer (this will happen), while probabilistic forecasting delivers a range of outcomes with multiple ensemble members (P99, P95, P90, P50 percentiles) so customers can choose risk levels appropriate to their strategy and risk tolerance.
Amperon's probabilistic ensemble picked up subtle signals in late December - a month before the event in late January - showing cooling trends across multiple forecast members, allowing customers to position for the event while competitors missed the early warning.
The grid only faces critical stress during 50-100 peak hours per year out of 8,760 total hours; demand flexibility, demand response programs, and load shifting (like moving data center compute to off-peak hours) can solve those bottlenecks faster and cheaper than multi-year transmission or generation projects.
Large loads can receive coincident peak alerts for their ISO region, then flex compute away from stressed grid periods (shifting to other regions or delaying non-urgent workloads to 4am), acting as grid-stabilizing resources rather than just consumers, which improves both PR and grid reliability.
Stranded assets are renewable installations (especially solar) that were built before data center demand existed and now face curtailment because there's surplus local generation; co-locating or near-locating data centers with these assets creates immediate offtake, avoiding mothballing and leveraging existing infrastructure.
Our reviewer’s read on each dimension, with quotes from the episode.
The episode surfaces a few genuinely useful concepts - the deterministic vs. probabilistic forecasting distinction, the 50 - 100 peak hours framing, and coincident peak alerts - but these are delivered at an introductory level and are heavily diluted by ad reads, personal banter, and generic enthusiasm about energy's importance.
There's 8,760 hours in a year. We're only concerned about 50, 50 if it's mild year, 100 if it's big year. And that's it. And that's what we need to look at.
85% of the intraday market in Europe is programmatically trading it's algorithm algos. No one's sitting there pushing the button.
The 50 - 100 hours of annual grid stress as the actual problem to solve is a mildly contrarian reframe worth noting, and the flexibility-over-generation argument has some teeth, but the rest of the episode recycles well-worn AI hype, solar-plus-storage enthusiasm, and generic calls for cooperation.
more flexibility? I think if you look at it, there's 50 to 100 hours that we are going to have an issue.
we don't know how this movie is going to play out, but the main character's energy
Kelly is a genuine practitioner - 21 years in power markets, ran ~three dozen power plants, stopped trading in 2016 to build a data product - giving him real credibility, but the interview never sufficiently excavates that depth, and he spends meaningful time promoting Amperon's NPS score and investor meetings rather than sharing hard-won operator knowledge.
I was a trader from 2005 to 2016. If you tell me something and then you're wrong then I can yell at you.
I ran about three dozen or so power plants
The episode offers a reasonable smattering of concrete figures - 51-member European ensemble, 46-day forecast, 165 customers, 58 NPS, Tim Healy's EnerNoc founded in 01 and sold in 17 - but the most interesting case study (Winter Storm Fern trading) stays frustratingly vague, and several claims are hand-waved with references to a website case study rather than explained on-air.
we just released a 46 day forecast and we give you all, all 51 members of the European ensemble
Tim Healy, for those of you who don't know, was co founder and CEO of InterNoc... started the company, I believe in 01, sold it in 17
The host asks a few structurally useful questions - the magic wand tri-choice and the deterministic-vs-probabilistic distinction - but consistently accepts answers without follow-up, deploys filler affirmations ('Magic,' 'Fascinating,' 'Yeah'), and interrupts momentum with a lengthy mid-episode ad block and audience-rating solicitation.
If you could wave a magic wand and accomplish one of these three things, which would you rather more generation, more transmission or more flexibility?
I love, I love that you just framed it like a junkie.
Computed from the transcript - who did the talking, and the words that came up most.
For decades, the energy industry has treated its biggest challenge as building more power. Sean Kelly thinks that's the wrong question. As CEO and co-founder of Amperon, Sean spends his days helping utilities, traders, generators, and some of the world's largest electricity users anticipate what's coming next. And what he's learned is surprisingly simple: the grid's biggest challenge isn't producing enough electricity. It's knowing when, where, and how demand, weather, and renewable generation will collide. That shift is changing everything. In this Tactical Tuesday conversation, Sean explains why Amperon is moving beyond traditional deterministic forecasting toward probabilistic forecasting, giving customers a range of possible outcomes instead of a single answer. More importantly, he makes the case that the future of the grid won't be won by building for all 8,760 hours of the year. It will be won by managing the handful of hours that matter most.
Transcribed and scored by The B2B Podcast Index.
Speaker A: Suncast is proudly brought to you by CPS Americas.
Speaker B: Energy is the cool topic right now, but everybody's got to get aligned and work together to solve this. This is the hardest problem I do believe that we've faced in our lifetime. We're either going to win or we're going to lose bad. And uh, that's where I really think that cooperation is really the key.
Speaker A: For nearly two decades, our next guest has worked at the intersection of energy trading, power markets, power generation. Before co founding Amperon, he traded power across North America markets, managed generation portfolios that included nuclear assets, and worked directly with large energy customers, navigating complex energy decisions. And it was precisely those energy decisions that he wanted to fine tune. We've had Sean Kelly of Amperon on this show before, but it's been a while and I wanted to talk a little bit about how the nature of his current business, which is forecasting, so that you and I, energy developers broadly, can answer the question, what's going to happen next? It's changing and I want to talk about the nature of how it's changing. So decided to bring Sean back. And if you're new here, I want to thank you for giving us the only non renewable resource you've got. Of course, that is your time. We are going to absolutely maximize the value of that time today. I think you're going to like Sean if you haven't met him before. We're going to dig deep. If you have any questions, make sure you reach out to us, team, uh, Suncast. If there's someone like Sean that you think should be on the show, let us know. We're still always looking for great founders like the guy you're going to meet right now. Sean, welcome back to the show.
Speaker B: Thanks so much, Nico. Great, uh, to be here. And fun fact, June 1, 2005 was my first day at Tanasca. So here we are. Turning 21 today, that is.
Speaker A: Wow.
Speaker B: My career is drinking age.
Speaker A: 21 years in the biz. I know. And you don't look a day older.
Speaker B: Yeah, that's where all the gray hair is from. Just happy it's here, it's here.
Speaker A: Well, the gray, the gray hair is, you know, raising a family and raising money and building a team all at the same time.
Speaker B: It definitely is.
Speaker A: The concept of forecasting weather, power, demand, availability, nodal, uh, pricing, et cetera, like this is something that's, it's commonplace in energy markets. How have you and Amperon approached it differently than the way forecasting was traditionally being done?
Speaker B: Yeah, I think the, the first thing is to take a step back. And Amperon is an AI powered data company, served as software. Uh, and that's how it's been since we went live in January of 20. And so we're not AI because it's convenient for fundraising now. It's literally how we were founded. And that sense was really AI from a machine learning standpoint as all of our models are very in depth and there's no forecast. That's right all the time. And so because of that you're getting an ensemble of multiple forecasts and then what we produce is electricity demand when solar, uh, price in ERCOT and pjm, uh, coming soon to a trade floor near you. And then we're active in the entire continental 48 Alberta, Ontario, Australia and 16 European countries.
Speaker A: Fascinating.
Speaker B: Um, per your customer base, we can stand up wind and solar absolutely anywhere. And so those intermittent generation assets is what allowed us to last year things not on my 2025 bingo card. Estonia, LATV, Jordan were places that we stood up for customers.
Speaker A: Magic.
Speaker B: So you just need lat long. Sun is sun, wind is when. And uh, everybody needs a forecast.
Speaker A: What is deterministic forecasting?
Speaker B: So deterministic forecasting is what I thought 2018 Sean thought was the correct answer. Cuz I, so I was a trader from 2005 to 2016. If you tell me something and then you're wrong then I can yell at you.
Speaker A: Right.
Speaker B: But if you give me a range of outcomes then I really can't yell at you. So like my goal was to always be able to be like it's your fault. And so I wanted to give the customer like I told you this was the answer. And then our team internally was like well it was or it wasn't. And this is our mean absolute percent error is what we use for demand. Because solar uh, dips negative, we use cn, uh, may uh, which is capacity normalized mean absolute error. It allows you to dip down negative at times. Ah, which is, which is helpful um, and doesn't burst the calculation model. And so that's, that's how I thought the world needed to be uh, viewed.
Speaker A: Yeah. Now and why did that work reasonably well for the.
Speaker B: It worked really well. We got 165 customers so something's, something's cooking. Um, but I really think weather's weird, it's crazy, we're way crazier. I mean we have a one in 100 year event every three months and it could be, I mean hurricanes hitting the coast of California, not supposed to happen, wildfires way Too much. I uh, mean you obviously got, I live in Texas. And so winter storm Yuri was a complete mess. Fern, uh, most recently took the entire, I mean like 34 states were at or near highs. Uh, I mean for, for North Carolina you had winter storm Elliott losing power on Christmas Eve. Can't black people out on Christmas. Yeah, uh, and so that's where weather just got hard. And so probabilistic, we feel is not the correct answer, but it's another answer. And obviously when you have a lot of customers, everyone views the market a little different and that's where you really need to meet people where they're at.
Speaker A: Help me understand the difference then because you just introduced probabilistic as a terminology. Why does probability matter? And in contrast with deterministic forecasting.
Speaker B: Great question. So we give you a range of outcomes and so you're going to catch the craziness out there and then catch the beyond boring. Absolutely nothing happens. And then the worst case scenario happens. The, the tail events that we keep hearing about. And so probabilistic lays out all of those. We just released a 46 day forecast and we give you all, all 51 members of the European ensemble. And so you're getting 51 forecast and then you get to go look at the P99, the P95, the P90, P50 like whatever you and your like management team, risk team like deems the most appropriate. So that's where probabilistic, uh, stacks up. If you ask five customers what probabilistic, how to do it correctly, you're going to come up with three different answers. So again, deterministic, this is the answer. And probabilistic, again there's a range of outcomes.
Speaker A: Is this customer driven, Market driven? What's the underlying, what's the undercurrent leading you to a more probabilistic approach.
Speaker B: Customer focused. And so, so when I got out of school in 05, most of the people that were trading and I ran about three dozen or so power plants, most of us, more than half were finance, econ majors. Like, like markets, things of that nature. Now you've got a ton of comp sci majors. Uh, you've got a bunch of data science, you've got a bunch of just programming who are coming into trading. That's awesome because as the world gets more confusing, Excel doesn't work. And that was the thesis of starting amp run. Excel doesn't work. Yeah, Python works, Claude code works. There's a whole variety of things that are moved significantly faster in processes much More data. And so the customer really spoke and said the way I look at the world and the way that I model with my algorithmic trading style, I need probabilistic.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: Uh, 85% of the intraday market in Europe is programmatically trading it's algorithm algos. No one's sitting there pushing the button. They are literally, uh, watching these balancing authorities, um, and have built a really great program to try and monetize that as much as possible.
Speaker A: Can you give me a practical example where probabilistic forecasting is making a difference? It's, it's moving the needle for a customer.
Speaker B: So with winter storm fern coming, it came in the 20s of January. It originally looked like it was going to come MLK weekend again. The last two MLK weekends were pretty tumultuous. And so we picked this up the week of Christmas. So we're a month out, we're able to see, hey, something's up here. And not all the bands caught it, but it was like there's enough to start looking at it. And so there's a really good case study on the Amperon website about how to trade the midterm forecast like three plus weeks out.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: And goes way more in depth than, than I'll go here. But literally it shows that it started trending toward colder and colder and colder.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: And so people started paying attention to it and then lo and behold we had a, uh, pretty rough event. Um, in the scheme of things, Texas didn't get head as bad as like a winter storm. Uri Nashville lost power for a week plus. So I mean it was definitely one that people are going to remember.
Speaker A: How are customers using that data to their advantage in that midterm?
Speaker B: So there's two ways customers look at things. If you're a trader, your goal is to make money. If you're a utility, your goal is to not lose money. And so you say that and it's, it's actually quite different. One is opportunistic, trying to say, hey, I can go buy $50 power and hope it goes to 500 and I'm going to make money. And then other people are saying I'm going to keep the lights on, I need to make sure that I'm properly prepared, that I brought enough gas for generation or that if the, if it's not going to be as sunny or as windy as expected. And so I'm just trying to keep everyone safe.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: And so that's what's really different is we have customers who we really refer to as risk mitig strategies and then others as like profitability strategies just based on the customer, uh, Persona.
Speaker A: I've heard you say that forecasting is buying time. How does understanding these probabilities better than just having the singular answer help your customers buy time?
Speaker B: I mean more data, that's what the whole world is moving to right now is just more data. And so this is giving them more opportunities to see what the market is going to do, see where things are going to move. If it says it's going to get cold, you, uh, may not have to catch the entire move. Some people are, some people are only allowed to buy power. Some people, most people are allowed to buy and sell power. So you can buy when the weather model says it's getting cold and then it can hit a number that you like and sell it out there or you can just let it keep going. So there's a number of ways that people can actually use this. And this is what I think a pretty strong advantage that Amperon has had is myself and a few of our early key hires, uh, have this background and so we sat in the seat and actually did this before so we really understand what our customer is going through.
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Speaker B: In what way?
Speaker A: Yeah, like how does the Amperon machine start to wake up and tell you and the rest and take notice? And I imagine that there's a lot that is happening that's uh, automated. But like how do you know when something is afoot?
Speaker B: Yeah, I mean we have a very, very good relationship with our customers and we just very proud. Just came back with our NPS score. So that's net promoter score. Do they like you? And almost everyone came back with eight nines or tens. We came back with a 58 on the net promoter score and so very, very proud of that. And so it's getting out in front of them and we don't want to be looked at as a vendor. We very much want to be looked at as, as a partner. And so because of that, so many people said they appreciated our partnership on that feedback and so that's what really means a ton to me as we want to work with them. And uh, I haven't been, been clean for 10 years. I haven't touched ice, haven't made a trade. And so with that, it's fun to be back in the game without fully being back in the game of just helping people like walk through what they need to make the best decision to, I mean, do the best for their job and their company and also their constituents.
Speaker A: I love, I love that you just framed it like a junkie. Um, I, because believe it or not, in this interview I was like, do I ask him, do I not ask him because he fallen off the.
Speaker B: Haven't, um, traded any power since literally march, uh, 31st of 2016.
Speaker A: Wow.
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: Yeah. Well, in that time, the power market, uh, has transformed in incredible ways just in the last two years with the introduction of, uh, load growth hyperscalers, uh, and data centers. How has the market evolved in a way that you didn't forecast?
Speaker B: About two years ago, it started getting more difficult for us to get the GPUs that we needed. And so that was a little bit of a precursor. We have a pretty sizable cloud Bill, as, as happens when your model retrains every single hour. And I think that was the, the precursor to obviously what's happening now. And now it is just trying to figure out how the heck do we get there? Because you've got, I mean, you've got middle schoolers sitting there playing on Chachi BT and Claude and everything like that all day long. And that was definitely not something that I saw coming. And this massive compute, uh, this massive compute and the fact everyone's talking about it. I. One of our very first investors was SV angel, and they had a really cool, um, really cool founder forum two weeks ago in San Francisco and got to sit down and listen to like, the thoughts of Sam Altman and Brett Taylor. Brett Taylor interviewed Sam Altman and then got to listen to Bill Gates talk about the future. And just. That's like, those are the rock stars these days. That's crazy.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: And so it's just fun to be in something that early in my career, especially like growing up as a kid in Houston, they said, why are you in electricity and why are you working at night?
Speaker A: Hmm.
Speaker B: It's like, uh, because you gotta keep electricity on at night. Why are you not an oil and gas. What's wrong with you two? Two? I was like, no, just on the real time desk. And now this is all anybody wants to talk about. And I also think that it is, I do believe it is an actual security issue, uh, for the country. And I think that, I mean, it also feels that AI is something that we're seeing that's bipartisan, that everybody can get behind and be like, we've gotta figure out a way to crack this. We've got to figure out affordability, we've got to figure out how to make sure that the right people pay for it. And it's not going just to the end users. We've got to make sure the reliability that we can actually get the power like where we need it. I'm fortunate to be an advisor to Emerald AI, which is really working on that. Backed by Nvidia and others. And so, I mean that's where this is the prime thing people are looking at and then people are looking at how do we power this thing. The one of the things I've heard multiple times is that we don't know how this movie is going to play out, but the main character's energy and that's what's so important because natural gas, that wait time for those combined cycles is pretty stinking long right now. Solar get that stood up like pretty reasonable time. I think we're like in Texas, we're pretty good on wind. We have about 40 plus gigs of it. So feel good about that. But solar is really where I think we have a lot of uh, ability to do that because it works so well with colocation and also with um, with batteries.
Speaker A: Yeah, I completely agree. There's still a lot of room in particular. Uh, I mean there's still. There are assets. We were just talking uh, in a previous conversation about so much opportunity on the grid where there isn't congestion and where there are lots of existing solar assets, where we have surplus of electricity and curtailment.
Speaker B: 100%.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: The stranded assets are back. Like if you go co locate or near locate a data center. That's amazing. You then have that the grid is so complex and so confusing and the backbone's 100 years old. And so if you put a solar installation, you think it's about to go mothballed. It's not. Find a data center. Even edge computing. A lot of people in Texas are trying to build these 9.9 megawatt data centers because you can. It's almost plug and play.
Speaker A: Right.
Speaker B: I love that. I'm big fan of, of where that's heading. And also all the renewable IPs again who have something that just worked out when they built it but isn't working out currently. Like they can go back and salvage those products.
Speaker A: Yeah. I was talking to David Holmes and he said that the distributed, the distributed compute, uh, in three years time is going to be all anyone talks about.
Speaker B: It's gonna be everywhere it's gonna be. You can put up a whole bunch of little data centers and that's what I think. That's the thing. I, that's the underserved market I think that we're missing is everyone wants to have the press release. Just super sexy to say it's a gigawatt, right?
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: Uh, but at the end of the day a whole bunch of 5, 10, 15, 20s, uh, megawatt that can get the job done. And also you can disperse them a lot better if you, yeah, you build a thousand megawatt site, you are in it to win it.
Speaker A: It's also, yeah, the most common size today is like 15 to 25 megawatt. Totally. That's been, that's been the data center world if I'm a developer. Speaking of missing opportunity, if I'm a developer trying to bring a large load online today, what's the biggest forecasting blind
Speaker B: spot that I probably have bringing a load on today? I think that's twofold. One that we don't deal with and one that we do deal with. And so the one that we don't deal with is interconnection queue. Like forecasting. When the queue is going to work, what's being double counted? Uh, Obviously all the ISOs are in the middle of trying to figure out how not to have insert big private equity name here have I mean 15, 20 different projects in the queue and being planning on building three to five of them. And so that's one of the things I think that's really hard to forecast is the queue. I wish there's a solution. Kind of glad I don't touch it. I don't know what the solution is. And then on the second piece is when you come online you are a very large flexible load resource. You are able to be demand response, you are able to save the grid essentially as we saw again this winter in both Texas and pjm a little bit in my son SBP as well. You can come on and save the day, you can be the hero as opposed to just the villain for the ratepayers being concerned about it. And so that's where we really tie in. We offer coincident peak alerts. So that tells you different rules for different ISOs. But the underlying theme is very similar beyond good behavior at ah, the hardest uh, time of day. And so that's where Amperon really thrives by giving out those coincident peak alerts. We've been doing that for five or six years now. I think this will be the fifth or sixth summer that we've been offering those. And so large loads have been looking at those and they should look at those. And then next is really understanding the market that you're in. I know not everyone from a hyperscaler standpoint is that price sensitive, but let's be honest, if prices start getting to 500 or $1,000, to be a good steward of the grid and to be a good neighbor, you need to be flexing down, moving your compute from a uh, Chicago to a Virginia or vice versa or whatever. And so that's where they really need to be good stewards and uh, make it easier for their PR teams.
Speaker A: If you could wave a magic wand and accomplish one of these three things, which would you rather more generation, more transmission or more flexibility? Which creates the most value over the
Speaker B: next five years to more flexibility? I think if you look at it, there's 50 to 100 hours that we are going to have an issue. There's 8,760 hours in a year. We're only concerned about 50, 50 if it's mild year, 100 if it's big year. And that's it. And that's what we need to look at. And those dowers we need to be concerned about. So the other two are great and very underserved and very difficult to build. But flexibility, it's not that bad. Amperon's really fortunate to have, uh, Tim Healy on our board. So Tim Healy, for those of you who don't know, was co founder and CEO of InterNoc, uh, which I say, and he likes it when I say this. Essentially invented demand response, right? And started the company, I believe in 01, sold it in 17 and ran that whole thing. Had to go deal with lobbyists, deal with like letting the regulators know what this meant. And that was flexibility for large commercial, industrial. And now everyone's in a demand response program. It just, it is what it is. That's what I think we're going to see going forward from a flexibility standpoint. It's going to take a minute because I know that your computer is obviously the most important computer, but can you be a little easier on, um, this, can you maybe. Do you really need it right now? Can you wait? Can we run at 4am when nobody else needs it? So those are the things I think again, the flexibility is definitely the right solution.
Speaker A: If folks only remember one thing from this conversation, what should it be?
Speaker B: I think the biggest thing is energy is the cool topic right now, but everybody's got to get aligned and work together to solve this. This is the hardest problem I do believe that we've faced in our lifetime. And we're either gonna win or we're gonna lose bad. And that's where I really think that cooperation is really the key. Uh, across all the different customer segments, across all the different political parties, across everything. Like we need to know this is the goal. And I think that's the, uh, that's the takeaway that I would definitely leave people with, just all work together. Why can't we all just get along?
Speaker A: Just gotta be friends.
Speaker B: Exactly.
Speaker A: I'm glad that, uh, you consider our friendship strong enough that you drive across town. Thanks for coming. Meet us at the Houston Club. Sean Kelly is the CEO and co founder of Amperon, one of the hottest startups in the energy sector.
Speaker B: Thanks, man.
Speaker A: Great to see you. I appreciate it.
Speaker B: Always a pleasure.
Speaker A: Always a pleasure. Thank you. Twice weekly, we deliver conversations with founders and leaders on the front lines of the clean energy transition. And we're here bringing this content to you, even each and every week, free of, um, charge. Of course. It's not free. Our sponsors help pay the bills and keep the lights on so that we can help you build your legacy in the clean energy transition. And so if you'd like to say thank you to them or learn more about what it is that they bring into the world, or perhaps see how you could reach thousands of listeners twice a week, just like they do, check it out at Suncast Media sponsor. Remember, you are what you listen to. Thanks again for showing up. Solar Warrior. It's half the battle.
Speaker B: Kia Solid Warrior.
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