ALERT: Gold Is Crashing… While The Dollar Rips Higher

Speaker A: All right, gold is getting crushed again as is silver. Silver's really getting hit. Those are both liquidations. We got the dollar that is spiking more than people would, would think. And maybe more important than both of those though it explains why these are happening. All of these are tied together. We've got some curve crashing going on here in some key places, including one place that you're probably not thinking of. And while it may seem to be related to oil and supply normalization there, the crashing on that curve, the curve that we're going to go through here goes a lot further. Again like all of these things are tied together. Gold, silver, liquidations, dollar spiking. I think most people get that connection though. They don't get the mechanical connection there which we'll get into. But also the implications come from the curves, um, including like I said, one that you may be not thinking of. So we start out with uh, we got gold and silver down big. Silver's down to a new um, more than multi month low. But uh, it's not just the low, it's uh, um, how quickly it's developing in the pattern uh, that it's playing out with greenback. The dollar is spiking. Not catastrophically spiking but the dollar is definitely playing a role here though we need to explain why the dollar is playing a role which means you need to understand why the dollar is going up and it's not Kevin Warsh and the damn dots tips. That's the market I'm talking about. The tips are absolutely screaming. This is one of those signals that you wouldn't or you would think that it has to do with, like I said, supply normalization. After the uh, oil prices coming down though, gasoline is lingering a little bit further behind. But this is over and above supply restoration and supply normalization. Petroleum, uh, oil prices are still in the low 70s whereas tips are, you'll see here and when I show you you'll understand what I'm talking about. And then the two year ten year curve, that's another one. This is a big part of the um, yield curve that is screaming a warning here. And if it continues to go in this direction, yes the dots and Kevin Warsh, but really the uh, important part of this is the long end of the yield curve. And if it continues to go like this we're going to see the 2 year, 10 year re invert all over again. And it's not as far away from doing so already as you might think, uh, on that. So let's start out with Precious metals. What's going on here today? Uh, we got new low in gold though it's still kind of hanging in around $4,000 per ounce. That's not necessarily a surprise. While you have liquidations, you also have safe haven demand. So from the peak uh, back in January, gold's down about 26%. So pretty substantial correction. Not that this was unexpected at all. I did a video about this a couple weeks ago. We went through all the mechanics there. We're expecting gold to be weak because it had, you know, such a tremendous run. So dollar problems plus correction, uh, mechanics in gold. Gold uh, um, is weak but relative to silver, as we'll get into the gold silver ratio, not surprising. Gold's going to hold up better than silver is uh, because, because gold has the safe haven demand. Whatever happens with the uh, liquidations, and you can kind of see the liquidations, there was one in the middle of March, the big one that I pointed out. And again that started a couple weeks ago and it has been revisited here over the last couple of days. Obviously it's related to the oil energy shock, um, because March 2nd, that's when everything really started. So the question is why? What is the relationship between gold prices going down and what happens with the energy shock? Now again the mainstream tells you this is about interest rates, it's about central banks hiking rates. It's not, that's not what's happening here. Instead it has to do with the dollar end of the energy shock. Like I said, like I've been saying from the beginning, an energy shock is a dollar shock and this is what we're getting in gold and an increasing dollar shock and an increasingly worrisome dollar shock. Silver not having a good run at all though. Again not an uh, unexpected whatsoever. Silver was up for non economic reasons. Whenever you see a chart that looks like that, the parabolic rise, that's never a good sign. That's, that's a sign that it's going to go straight up and come back down. It wasn't, it won't, won't come back down the same way it went up, but it's going to come back down. So we've expecting, we've been expecting silver to correct and correct hard, which it has been in fact from the peak it's down about 50%. Uh, expect it to go lower still because there's a lot of factors involved here, including what's going on, um, more recently. And again you can see the liquidations there, the liquidation pressure. So not only Silver, the lowest since it's been since uh, December. More importantly, how it's getting to that low. And when you connect this to historical, previous, uh, historical experiences like 2011, uh, it's not a random historical accident that silver struggles like this. It goes parabolic and then has trouble on the other side when you have dollar problems that lead to lower liquidations of precious metals. And it's not even just gold and silver. We also see copper doing the same thing to a lesser extent. Copper is down pretty big today too, below $6 per pound at the CME. And you can see the same thing happened in copper in the middle of March when we saw the liquidations in gold and silver. So we're seeing liquidations in metals, not just precious metals, but metals overall. Um, some other metals are being weak like aluminum, which I'm not going to get into here, but that, that's when you look at aluminum and some of the industrial metals and weakness there, you start to get the sense this is not just about rate hikes or even about rate hikes or central bank or even interest rates whatsoever, except for interest rates when you look at uh, what's taking place on, on these various curves. So liquidations in metals, that's the key message and the key takeaway. Why? Well, uh, like I said before, most people at least connect weakness, uh, in gold with a rising dollar or a stronger dollar. But why does the dollar go up? Um, we talked about this before. Like I said a couple weeks ago, central banks, uh, some of them have been selling their gold reserves which is the reason why they have gold reserves in the first place. Uh, gold reserves aren store value. They are to be used when they need those reserves to um, help alleviate a global dollar shortage or local dollar shortage. That's part of an overall, uh, dollar shock. We saw that with Turkey central bank selling, which wasn't really selling, was more of a gold swap, gold lease. Um, and uh, we've seen officials, ah, we can skip through this. Um, the Asian dollar shock has been, uh, has been a consistent feature of the energy shock over the last, uh, several months. It's not surprising that we make these connections. We got dollar shortage due to the energy shock on both the supply and demand side. By that I mean supply of dollars and demand for dollars. Demand for dollars has gone up as oil prices got more and more expensive and importers had to import more oil than they were expecting because they, they did contract for oil that got stuck in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Arabia and wasn't able to be delivered. So they had to Buy different oil from different places, largely from the United States, but also Brazil and some others. Um, you have rising demand for oil, lower, uh, reduced willingness and ability of dollar providers to actually provide dollars. And so you've got the dollar shock there. At the same time, not surprising that gold's weak, uh, during these conditions. Um, India is another one experiencing substantial dollar problems to the point that they've been trying to dissuade Indians from buying gold, which at least from the data I've seen, hasn't really worked all that well. But that's potentially a demand side factor holding back gold. Um, on the upside, uh, when India is such a huge buyer of gold, when the Indians no longer are willing to buy gold at the same rate, that's potentially one factor to at least consider. But the bigger one, the green back spike, the rise in the dollar here, uh, dxy, which is the index most people associate with the dollar even though you shouldn't. It's mostly the Euro, it's sort of a, a twisted, distorted view of the overall dollar condition. And even DXY is rising. It's above 100, it's above 100 one and a half as of today. And you can see it's the highest it's been in at least a year. So so much for Sell America and dollar doomism and dollar crashing. And so the real question here is dollar going up. Why is the dollar going up? And we see in a whole bunch of different indexes the uh, nominal emerging market, uh, trade weighted index, the dollar hasn't been weak, it's been on its longer term trend which is not positive when the dollar goes up. That uh, reasons as I'll get to in just a second here. So the dollar is kind of reverting to trend in one sense a longer run trend. And um, it doesn't matter what currencies you look at. DXY is heavily, uh, heavily weighted to the euro, even the euros down to a more than uh, almost a year low. What does that go back to? Yeah, more than a year low here, around 113, which again most people are associating with. Okay, the Fed is likely to hike rates, which is true. The ECB is now walking back maybe additional rate hikes out of them. And with European rates lower than American rates and the Fed going in this way and the European Central bank going in the other way, interest rate differentials are playing a role in weakening the euro. And that is true to a certain extent. Interest rate differentials do in the short run impact currency translations and currency exchange values. Especially when you see shorter term interest rates, interest rates like treasury bill yields, treasury bill yields have been rising, which is the cash markets, um, the cash market beginning to price. The dots, the Fed's ridiculous stupid damn dots. The treasury market is saying, okay, the chances of the Federal Reserve hiking rates maybe once in the next couple months is rising. So that definitely plays a role, especially in the euro in the short run. But as we go through here, you can see that the dollar rising, especially um, outside of the short run, it has to do with a lot more than just what the Fed's policy is against various central banks, um, the yen and the Korean won. Even though the Korean won rebounded a bit, it's back weaker again. The yen doesn't matter. The interventions, we had massive interventions by the government in Tokyo working through the bank of Japan. They basically flushed $75 billion uh, reserve equivalents down the toilet and set it on fire on the way down, way down through the bowl, um, yen is back to around 161, almost 162 all over again. Despite the fact that this, the, the bank of Japan raised rates last week. So it's not interest rates. The dollar is biased higher. And what we're really seeing in these, these exchange, um, values, it doesn't matter which one you look at. I just wanted to, I picked a selection here just to show you that overall the dollar trend is higher, these currencies are lower when you uh, look past the fluctuations. But even the short run fluctuation, we've seen a substantial um, uh, upward bias in the US dollar exchange value. Um, and just a reminder to review where we, over the last year, what really happened in March and April of 2025 during the tariff chaos, the deflationary outbreak that showed up early last year, the dollar spiked but then the dollar backed off, which everybody associated with Sell America and whatever else, we hate Trump and they're ditching the dollar, all that kind of stuff. What you can see what really happened was the dollar spiked. And this is the part you need to pay attention to. The dollar spiked during the deflationary chaos because that's what the dollar exchange value does. When dollars are in short supply, the dollar tends to go up. And then after that, when uh, the system started to re. Risk, uh, uh, after the tariff uh, were delayed, the Trump administration, what did they call it, um, Independence Day, whatever day it was through April and May, there was a bit of re risking. And so the dollar exchange value started to fall off. Other currencies began to rise against the dollar. That Wasn't the do sold? It looked that way from uh, from the perspective of the euro and therefore dxy, which made a much bigger move. But for most currencies it was nothing more than going back to where it had been prior to the tariff disorder and chaos, uh, March and April of 2025. So a dollar didn't really go get a whole lot weaker there, it just kind of reverted back to less urgency on the deflationary dollar shortage from the tariff chaos. And then it kind of went sideways for the most part over the next couple months, some, some currencies were weaker against the dollar than others, depending upon dollar funding conditions and circumstances. But then more recently we've got the dollar spiking all over again. So we've got the longer term trend, dollar higher as well as the short run, very short run trend where the dollar is up, ah, pretty sharply against a lot of different currencies. And the question is why that must be. But overall what we see is this bias toward the US dollar up, which is the background for us to look for, for us to first evaluate, uh, what's going on in precious metals and metals overall, not just uh, gold and silver, but also copper as I showed you. But the US dollar is moving higher. That's the overall message. And I think most people do connect weakness in gold with the US dollar going higher. But why is the dollar going higher if it's not, you know. Christine Lagarde versus Kevin Warsh. Well, there is a mechanical relationship between the dollar exchange value and monetary conditions. Specifically this is where it ties back to gold reserve assets. So right here we're showing you the tick data, foreign, uh, holdings and foreign dispositions of US Treasury. So foreigners and this were foreign officials, therefore, you know, uh, foreign governments and foreign central bankers, they hold US Treasuries like they hold gold as a reserve asset. So when they need to use a reserve asset because local funding conditions aren't robust or aren't sufficient, they sell those reserve assets to raise liquid dollar, uh, assets, liquid dollar cash balances, which is really ledger money, not physical money, not Federal Reserve notes, not Federal Reserve bank reserves, but ledger money on a bank balance sheet somewhere in the Eurodollar system. They raise liquid US dollar deposits that then get loaned or somehow used to help alleviate the dollar shortage. So what we see is the mechanical relationship between the dollar exchange value and what's going on in Eurodollar conditions is foreign governments sell the reserve assets. We know they sell the reserve assets because they're experiencing a dollar shortage. And at the Same time they're selling the reserve assets because they're experiencing a dollar shortage, the US dollar exchange value goes up. And just to be clear, on the charts that I'm showing you here, uh, the uh, DXY is an inverted scale. So on this chart down is actually up for the US dollar. And again you see a pretty substantial correlation, pretty strong correlation. It's not perfect, it's not one to one. Nothing ever is. Especially when you look at it long run. It is a pretty good correlation. It is a very strong, durable, historically valid correlation. There is a mechanical relationship between US dollar conditions and the US dollar exchange value. So when foreign governments are selling their reserve assets, in this case U.S. treasuries, the dollar is going higher and the dollar is going higher because of uh, why foreign governments are selling the reserve assets in the first place. And if they're selling US Treasuries as reserve assets, it's not a huge leap to sell other kinds of reserve assets being in this case our focus gold and to a lesser extent silver. Though silver I think is more caught up in the liquidations that are taking place in gold. Uh, so like I said, mechanical relationship, if the dollar is biased higher across a number of different currency exchange values, that's not interest rates, it's not the Federal Reserve policy, it's not foreign government and central bank policies. It's a mechanical relationship about dollar availability. And since we've been talking about dollar availability, dollar shock ever since the intershock began, no wonder. Going back to the second chart I showed you on gold, gold has been weak since the start of the energy shock because of the dollar shock effect and what it has meant as far as the use of reserve assets in a mechanical relationship that also loosely but, but uh, noticeably corresponds with the US dollar exchange value going higher. So we're basically saying is gold Treasuries to an extent in the US dollar exchange value are pointing toward liquidity issues across more of the euro dollar system than you would actually expect. That's one of the reasons why we go through some of these, these uh, currency exchange values, different ones, to show you that it's not just, it's not just as it had been for a couple of uh, weeks there. You know, it's like India's rupee or Indonesia's rupee or some of the Asian currencies. It is pretty broad based to the point that it's also including the euro, which means DXY is actually showing up or the, the dollar short is actually showing up at DXY in a Significant enough way that DXY is at uh, a more than your high itself. So that's the, that's the dollar connection. And we need to go further into the curves, which is something that we're going to do this coming Sunday. Just want to remind everybody I'm having a webinar. June 28th, this coming Sunday, 5:30pm Eastern Time. We're going to talk about these signals, what they mean and how to use them in a portfolio management and maintenance construction kind of a format. If you're a do it yourself investor, if you're a portfolio manager, how do you take these euro dollar signals which by the way you're not going to get anywhere else? Uh, certainly the mainstream is not going to talk about this. And if the mainstream does talk about it, when we get into curves, they often get it all wrong and backwards to begin with. So you can join me this coming Sunday, 5:30pm Eastern Time. There's a link in the description of this video to sign up. Um, got a lot to cover, a lot to go over and I'm going to show you all this stuff in the, in the context of investing and how it really applies there. But continuing here, um, getting to the curves, especially the tips curve, because the tips curve is absolutely screaming here. Um, it's one thing like I said in the introduction here, um, you would expect that first of all, tips didn't get high to begin when we're talking about break even rates. And I'll explain all this stuff in more detail on Sunday because we can, we get a lot more detail than we get here on YouTube. But tips break even rates are basically the market's measure of relative inflation expectations because it's a measure of demand for inflation protection paid through the CPI by the Treasury Department itself. So TIPS give you an idea, a relative idea of how strong there is of an uh, inflation expectation in the marketplace and specifically the treasury marketplace. And what you see is that there never really was much as far as Iran inflation, just like there wasn't last year with tariff inflation. The market has said all along that any impact from oil prices on the CPI is going to be only oil prices. And that much is being proved right now. The part that I just circled with the very sharp drop, in fact, it's a legitimate crash in break even rates. Uh, so the legitimate crash and break even rates combined with the fact that break evens never got high to begin with, what the market was saying is a couple of different things, couple important things. First of all, there was never any inflation risk because There was never anything in the CPI apart from oil. Central bankers keep talking about second order effects, which is oil prices go up and they force other parts of the consumer experience to have to respond to it by raising prices of other consumer goods and maybe services. The market said not happening, it was not happening, it was only oil. And that point is being proven by breakevens going down as oil prices go down. Which raises the second issue here. Why are break evens going down now? It stands to reason break evens never got high to begin with. Now oil prices are down pretty sharply. The market is simply repricing back toward where we were before with oil prices were in the 50s, except these break even rates, first of all the speed at which they're falling. And second of all they've gone much farther than oil prices have, which raises a couple of other issues which goes along with the liquidations in gold and the dollar spiking deflationary conditions. What the tips market seems to be suggesting is that this is not just supply normalization of petroleum, therefore oil prices going back to where they were. This goes beyond normalization in oil supply into the territory and well into the territory of oil and macroeconomic demand destruction. And if we get into a situation where we start to see more and more demand destruction around the global economy, of course we're going to experience an even more even broader dollar shock than what had been throughout the energy shock period. So all these things really do tie together. And again with the tips market, it's not just that they're going down, it's that they're out, out distancing and outpacing oil as it, as oil reverts back to where it was. But also we're starting to see m to the point that tips breakeven rates are actually crashing. Here, let me show you the 10 year, because the 10 years I think is a better example. It's a good example, the five year, but the ten year is a good example. Uh, a better example. You look at the 10 year break even rate. This is something we rarely see when it goes almost straight down like that. So this is more than just strictly normalization of energy prices and energy flow. In fact, the last time that we saw a uh, 10 year break even behave even close to like this, where it sells off this much in this short of a period of time. Again legitimately a crash was last year, March and April, deflationary conditions, deflationary expectations. Same thing with um, August of July and August of 2024, the carry trade. So this goes beyond Strictly oil price normalization and oil supply normalization. We're talking about the tips market saying there's something additional and extra that's taking place. We know what it is, we just went through it in the dollar, uh, exchange value. The chips market is saying the consequences of what's taking place in the dollar system, um, are likely to lead to more than just CPI's reverting to where they had been before the energy shock started. Something is going to take CPI's off even more than the energy price normalization would. We're going farther beyond simply just round tripping the energy shock. And that's what the TIPS market is not just suggesting. It is, it is m more strongly and confidently suggesting. The more we see these TIPS break even, rates legitimately crash in a way you rarely ever see. That's the uh, I think the most shocking point why I said in the introduction, the TIPS break evens and the TIPS curve is screaming because you rarely see moves like this. I know it doesn't sound like a lot, you're talking about, you know, 20 or 30 basis points, points. But that is a huge move in something like the TIPS curve. And it's not something you see outside of conditions where you have lots of deflationary potential at the very least, if not deflationary, uh, reality, which is again gets us back to what's going on in the dollar system, the dollar exchange value and gold. This is more than just oil supply normalization. We're into demand destruction and even deflationary outbreaks, um, due to, you know, monetary shortages and the macroeconomic consequences of everything altogether. So like I said before, the longer run 5 year, 5 year forward rate that had said all along, there's no inflation risk, there's no second order inflation effects. That's not happening. Just like there wasn't last year with tariff inflation nor sticky inflation in 2024 or all of this. The TIPS market has been unequivocal. There is no inflation risk. But now it's becoming. Sorry about that. We're in the middle of a thunderstorm here. As you know, it's afternoon in South Florida in the summertime or near the summertime. So we got a little bit of a thunderstorm going on. But the TIPS market is basically saying there was no inflation risk. If anything, the risks have now tilted to the opposite side where we're actually legitimately at risk of disinflation or more than, more than typical disinflation to the point where we actually might see some deflation. So that's the Background to understand what's taking place not just in gold and silver and copper or the dollar exchange value, but also what the next little while is might look like for the marketplace for the macro economy. It's not like the stock market where everything is supposed to be soaring ahead, re risking everything's great. Now it's gotten to the point where because like I said, the dots, the fomc, damn dots on the fomc, they're stupid inflation theories that have them on the verge of um, making the trichet mistake, hiking rates like the ECB already did for no legitimate reason. The two years going like this and the 10 years going like this to the point the two are getting close to re inverting all over again. So you have the two that's moving up and like I've been telling you guys all along, the two is moving up not because the market is repricing inflation risk. We just went through the tips which shows not only is it not repricing inflation risk, it is actually pricing disinflation or deflationary risk. That's the rain on the window. Uh, so the two years up on um, the Federal Reserve potential there and you can see the two years not even up all that much. We've seen a bigger move in the two year rate back in 2024. So the two year is not even actually moving all that much. Certainly not to the degree that it would actually uh, explain what's going on in uh, gold, uh, the sudden uh, 25% correction in gold or the bigger correction in silver. So at the same time the cheers going up, the 10 year hasn't gone up nearly as much. And over the last month the 10 year is actually going down along with the 30 year. So long into the yield curve is moving down in rates at the same time short end rates are going up. That collision is traditional or typical, not quite inversion, but heading toward the inversion which we all know what inversion means. Inversion is the market. Well people think inversion means the market is saying recession and that's a possibility. It certainly was in 2022 was the forgot how to grow recession. Not the full blown recession that most people have in mind when you use that term. But inversion simply means the market is disagreeing with the Federal Reserve. It means that interest rates that are set uh, by the Federal Reserve policy or influenced by the Federal Reserve policy are incorrect and they're going to have to be changed at some point. And then when you compare this up with terms SOFR futures we know with the term. So for futures Crown, uh, the frown, excuse me, not crown frown. With term SOFR futures, the market expects the Fed to hike rates and then immediately turn around and cut them. Why would they do that? Because of everything that we just talked about in this video, including uh, crashing tips, break even rate. So the market is increasingly confident if the Fed does go through with a rate hike, it is not going to be able to stick with rate hikes. It's certainly not going to be higher for longer to the point that we now have the curve that is getting uncomfortably close to zero, completely flat and maybe even re inverting. Not there yet. It's about 25 basis points as of this, as of before I started recording here, last check and you can see how the 10 year and the 30 year are moving lower at the same time. The 2 year is still moving higher because of those idiot dots and those idiots at the Federal Reserve. So the market is saying we disagree with the Fed. That's the flattening on the yield curve and getting closer and closer to zero and a perfectly flat curve, maybe even reinverting is strenuously disagreeing with the Fed. And why would the market strenuously disagree with the Fed? It's because of what we see in gold, what we see in the dollar exchange value and of course the screaming tips break even that are crashing, legitimately crashing. So all of these things together that are making huge moves are telling you the same thing from different perspectives. Now lots of implications here. So starting with gold, what is the implication for gold? Well, as we know, the dollar goes up for all these funding reasons. These are uh, potentially dollar shock reasons. It's not good for gold in the short run. In the longer, intermediate and longer term, gold positive safe haven demand fundamentals, those don't change. But in the short run, you got to watch yourself. If you're a gold owner or if you intend to buy gold, you might want to put that off a little bit to see where things shake out because there's still a lot of downside risk in precious metals and gold as we go through this. Like I said, it's not interest rates. We've seen interest rates rise before and there is no response in the gold market to rising nominal interest rates. There's some connection to other interest rates like real rates, but that's more short run than anything. Gold is driven by these factors that I've laid out for you here. Safe haven demand in the long run, not inflation, safe haven. And in the short run, oftentimes dollar funding conditions because of gold being used As a reserve asset similar to US Treasuries, silver you got to be very careful with here. Like I said, I expect silver to go much lower because the gold to silver ratio is still around 68. That's where it was as of the liquidations today with gold being relatively higher than silver, it's retraced back to 68. But you can start to see here how the market is moving back toward 80, which is where I expect it to be. Um, and as the market moves back toward a gold to silver ratio of 80, that means silver's got a lot further to go. In 80, gold to silver ratio with gold at around $4,000 per ounce puts it underneath 50 bucks. So that's what we have for a downside for silver. And I talked about this a couple weeks ago in the video, so I won't go over, uh, uh, too detailed here, won't go over too much of it here. The reason we don't expect the gold to silver ratio to hang around in the 50s and 60s is because there really is no industrial support for silver. At a 45 gold to silver ratio. Uh, China's GDP is a perfect example of this. Like I said, I went over this a couple weeks ago. Um, China's GDP is a proxy for industrial demand for industrial metals like silver and copper. Therefore, if China's economy is struggling, which we know it is, I mean we talk about it all the time here at Yuru Dollar University. China is struggling. Doesn't matter what's happening in AI or any electrification dreams that are out there. China's economy is struggling, therefore the global economy is struggling manufacturing wise, which means there isn't the kind of industrial support for silver that a lot of people have been talking about, which would be able to maintain silver at a gold to silver ratio of something like 45 or even 55 or even 65. So fully expect and anticipate the gold to silver ratio have to go back up to 80, if not, if not possibly 90, which means watch out, there's still some downside left in silver. And then you throw on top of all that deflationary potential from the US dollar funding conditions that we're seeing here in the dollar exchange value, not to mention the consequences if all of these curves are talking about potentially the classic energy shock playing out in the macroeconomy, the global macro economy, which means substantially greater downside risk across, uh, the macro economy, not just the US but also Europe and China and everywhere else. Um, that's also going to be another factor to be Careful about precious metals, dollar funding conditions, illiquidity, deflation and all of these D word stuffs that we talk about, um, too much. So the risk here for silver, if we can focus on silver, is something like the uh, 2011, 2012, 2013 case, um, which unfortunately is a realistic situation because let's face it, silver went way too far, way too fast. It went parabolic last year and when you combine that with an, with a supply squeeze that went way too far. On the upside with all of these shorter term, intermediate term fundamentals, it's not a good place to be in the shorter term or maybe the intermediate term for especially silver. So precious metals being liquidated, it's not Kevin Warsh, it's not the Federal Reserve. It is consistent with the dollar spiking, but the dollar spiking is not because of Kevin Warsh or Christine Lagarde or interest rate differentials. The dollar is spiking because there is a mechanical relationship between US dollar meaning Eurodollar funding conditions, liquidity conditions across the global Eurodollar system, which is the real reserve currency, not the US Dollar. The Eurodollar liquidity conditions in the Eurodollar relate to first of all uh, the dollar exchange value going higher, but also the use by foreign, not just foreign governments, but foreign governments and foreign uh, private uh, financial counterparts having to use their reserve assets. And gold is certainly one reserve assets as are US Treasuries. And as all that is taking place where you have difficulties in US dollar funding conditions, you've got liquidations in reserve assets. Of course you're going to see curves do what curves have been doing. The tips curve is legitimately crashing in the break even rates which is over and above just the energy shock um, and supply normalization um, in the uh, energy sector uh, is instead we have you know, tips break evens going way past that to the point where the market starts to look like it's pricing demand destruction of some kind, which is consistent with everything else, as is the 210 spread collapsing to the point where we have to even, we have to strongly consider and seriously consider the 2 year, 10 year spread on the treasury curve might actually re invert all over again. If the ten year continues to drop or even just go a little bit sideways and the two year gets a little bit higher. Next thing you know you're going to have reinversion on the 2 year 10 year spread which is going to get a whole hell of a lot of people's attention. And for every single reason that I just went over here Like I said, it is a consistent picture from different perspectives. And gold is giving you a warning and the same warning that we're getting from the dollar exchange value. The flattening yield curve and the crashing tips breakevens not the Federal Reserve. It's not the dots. It is likely the combination of weak economic fundamentals, the energy shock and the classic case potentially playing out over the next few months ahead, especially after we get past all of these short run macroeconomic distortions related especially manufacturing to the uh, the Iran conflict itself and the energy shock. So that's what we're going to talk, that's, that's what we talk about here. Like I said, um, lots going on, a whole bunch going on. Boy, um, gold, precious metals. Keep uh, an eye on all this stuff. And there's a couple other things I didn't get a chance to uh, get to, including how the four week treasury bill yield is moving lower. I did get that to that in our Eurodollar university subscriptions, our deep dive analysis that talked about that as well as well as the macroeconomic signals. You're getting real close lightning and thunder here. So apologies for the thunderstorm here in South Florida, but I think I thought it was worth discussing what's uh, discussing what's going on, especially precious metals, because it does fit into what seems to be a strengthening move across the financial system that is over and above normalization. The energy shock and oil space. That's it for me. Hope everyone has a good day. Hopefully won't get hit by lightning in uh, the next couple minutes.