ENGIE EnergyScan · 2026-02-25 · 14 min
In this episode, Julien Hoarau and Paul Chavy unpack the sharp drop in EU carbon prices - EUAs falling more than 20% from mid‑January highs above €90/t. Together they explain how a barrage of political headlines, lobbying pressure, leaked documents, and renewed policy uncertainty disrupted what had been a strong structural bullish narrative. The discussion dives into the key reform flashpoints ahead of the EU ETS review - free allocation, the MSR, and the LRF - plus the potential impact of unallocated allowances and how positioning and options dynamics can amplify volatility. Finally, the episode lays out three plausible near‑term price scenarios and assesses whether the structural bull case is truly broken - or simply paused by politics.
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