Creative Forecasting Masterclass: How to Calculate Your Exact Creative Volume for Any Spend Target

Episode notes

D2C Diaries is proudly sponsored by Commercive. If you're a ecommerce business owner doing a minimum of 10+ orders per day and looking for a smarter and cost-effective way to source and fulfill from china, go to for a free quote and fulfillment audit today. - Most brands have a creative volume problem and don't know it. In this masterclass, Olly breaks down the Creative Forecasting model Soar Group uses across its client base (brands spending anywhere from £100K to £5M a month on Meta) to answer the one question that unlocks scale: how many new creatives do I need to produce each month to hit my spend target? You'll learn how to pull and classify your ad inventory, run cohort survival analysis to get your real churn rate, calculate your win rate and half-life, and plug those numbers into a demand equation that tells you exactly how many ads to launch each month, whether you're holding spend or scaling to a new target. Olly also covers why volume without diversity stalls accounts, how to map creative gaps across personas and angles, and the negative spiral most brands sleepwalk into when creative becomes a cost centre instead of a growth lever.

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