The Illusion of Knowledge

Episode notes

Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality - that the macro future is largely unknowable - and focusing on what they can know. The memo is read by LJ Ganser. You can read the memo here (

• What's Going on in Private Credit?80 / 100
• Reflections on Oaktree Conference 2026 with Howard Marks76 / 100
• AI Hurtles Ahead67 / 100
• Is It a Bubble?
• Cockroaches in the Coal Mine