The Series A Valuation Gap VCs Are Hiding

Episode notes

In Episode 60 of The Venture Capital Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore an uncomfortable reality of early-stage investing in mid-2026: the widening gap between what founders think their Series A is worth and what VCs are actually paying. Using fresh data from the recent IPO filings of companies like Reddit and the performance of ARKK (up 4.6% in five days), they break down how down rounds are becoming the new normal, why the median Series A valuation has barely budged while late-stage valuations surged, and the clauses VCs insert to protect themselves when the next round comes at a lower number. Lucas walks through a specific case — a B2B SaaS startup that raised a $12 million Series A at a $45 million pre-money with a weighted-average anti-dilution provision — and explains exactly how that plays out if the Series B comes at $35 million. Luna challenges whether founders should just hold out for better terms, and Lucas argues that the window is shrinking. They close with the broader question: is venture capital becoming a buyer's market again?