The Rundown 12/24/25: The AI Shakeout, Canada’s Defense Pivot, & Predictions for 2026

Episode notes

In the final episode of 2025, Matt Cohen and John Ruffolo reflect on a turbulent year for technology, capital markets, and Canadian innovation, while looking ahead to the forces that will shape 2026. The conversation opens with Canada’s largest private startup round of the year, a $1.76B raise by Toronto based HydroStar Energy Storage, and uses it as a springboard to examine the AI shakeout now underway. John describes the sector as entering a “forest fire” phase, where overfunded and undifferentiated companies fall away, creating room for stronger, more durable players to emerge. Matt and John then explore whether 2026 will finally mark a return of major tech IPOs, or whether the regulatory burden and liquidity options in private markets will keep companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and OpenAI on the sidelines. Despite interest rate cuts, the hosts argue capital markets remain constrained and selective. The discussion shifts to Canada’s strategic priorities, including a growing focus on defense technology viewed through a dual use lens of sovereignty and innovation. As talent emigration rises and domestic risk capital lags, the episode closes with a clear warning.

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