The 2025 Holiday Reality Check

Episode notes

Lupine Skelly, Retail Research Leader at Deloitte, joins Phillip and Alicia to dissect the stark reality behind this year's holiday shopping forecast. Consumer spending is projected to drop by 10%, and economic pessimism has reached its highest level since the Great Recession. As a result, retailers are facing a season where communicating value is key. This conversation explores the enduring vitality of Black Friday, the quiet revolution of private label brands, and how cultural rituals, AI integration, and brand loyalty are being fundamentally rewired. The Data Doesn’t Lie Key Takeaways: Shoppers expect to spend $1,595 this season as economic concerns peak 57% expect the economy to weaken, the most pessimistic outlook recorded since 1997 Black Friday remains vital despite two decades of obituaries 24% of budgets are spent by October due to the Prime Day effect Private label gains ground as brand loyalty fundamentally shifts Key Quotes: [00:02:10.14] Lupine Skelly: "57% of people are saying they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, and that's the highest we've seen since we started tracking that question in 1997.

• Korean 'Dopamine Sites' Let You Shop Without Shopping60 / 100
• Inside Lululemon’s Resale Engine68 / 100
• The Machine Ate the Storefront, PayPal Mapped the Collapse69 / 100
• Nearly 1B Strong: Snapchat Has Retail’s Most Overlooked Audience
• After Dark: "You're Not A Visionary, You're A Vendor"